Editorial: Will Key stick around till 2020?

Prime Minister John Key. Photo / George Novak

The past 12 months may seem to some to have been somewhat of an "annus horribilis" for Prime Minister John Key - despite the little matter of a whopping general election victory - but the National Party leader says he's determined to win again in 2017.

Apparently the Dirty Politics saga, the Northland by-election loss and the ponytail-pulling debacle haven't driven Mr Key to reconsider his future in the same way the trials of 2012 did.

At the weekend he told party faithful at a regional conference: "I am just as committed today to leading National to victory at the next election as I was when first taking up the role as your leader in November 2006."

Should Mr Key see out a three-year fourth term he will be the longest-serving Prime Minister since William Massey died in office in 1925.

Of course it's early days in the election cycle - but speculation about Mr Key's successor has been around for a while.

Political journalist Audrey Young noted in a weekend column that Mr Key said he will stand again in 2017 "because that's what leaders have to say until they change their minds".

She also pointed out a cabinet spot could open up for potential leadership candidate Judith Collins when Todd McClay takes up Tim Groser's trade negotiations portfolio later this year, paving the way for a leadership tilt should National lose in 2017.

Because whether New Zealand, with its traditional nine-year itch, is ready for a fourth term of National-led government is the real question.

At this stage they're riding high. Last week's Herald-DigiPoll had National at 51 per cent support, ahead of Labour's 28.7 per cent.

In the Preferred Prime Minister stakes John Key scored 64.6 per cent, ahead of Labour leader Andrew Little's 13.9 per cent. But if a week in politics is a long time, two and a half years is an eternity. Will we still be talking about ponytails in the latter half of 2017?