The number of Covid-19 cases in the Lakes District Health Board area could peak at almost 5000 as early as next month, modelling data suggests.
And more than 500 patients could be hospitalised with Covid-19 within the year, with 12 going to ICU, the Ministry of Health says.
The national modelling by Te Pūnaha Matatini used data from Omicron surges overseas to examine what the variant's progression in New Zealand would look like.
It applied the modelling to each health board and showed the Lakes DHB area could have 4913 cases and 145 people hospitalised for Covid-19 next month.
This comes as the number of Omicron cases continues to rise nationwide.
Yesterday there were 204 new community cases, including two new cases of Covid-19 in the Lakes District Health Board region and 11 in the Bay of Plenty DHB region.
In total, there were 100 active Covid-19 cases in the Lakes DHB.
As of yesterday, 91 per cent of the Lakes DHB's population aged 12 or older was double vaccinated and 93 per cent had at least one dose.
Of the 61,597 DHB residents over 18 who were eligible for the booster vaccine, 57 per cent had received the third jab.
Lakes DHB chief operating officer Alan Wilson said the current outbreaks in Rotorua had not placed "undue pressure" on the hospital system.
"The outbreaks have been managed well by primary and community services, although with quite a lot of additional clinical and welfare support being provided," Wilson said.
"While it is not possible to be completely certain, it does appear that the outbreaks are being contained, though that does require all cases and contacts to continue following the public health advice."
Wilson said the DHB expected to be able to manage local people needing hospitalisation for Covid-19 within Rotorua Hospital because there was a reduced number of people who needed to be ventilated compared to other variants.
"All the ICUs in the region already work well together, and if Rotorua Hospital has more patients than they can deal with then those patients would be moved to another ICU in a neighbouring hospital."
Wilson said an outbreak in an emergency accommodation setting would be dealt with in the same way as outbreaks in any hotel, motel or apartment block.
"We are asking the public to help support the local health system," Wilson said.
"By having all children aged 5 to 11 vaccinated and all adults vaccinated and having boosters we can keep local systems going."
Lakes District Health Board member Merepeka Raukawa-Tait said there was a lot of information available to help and support families and there was no need to panic.
"I think the community knew this time would come. We hoped it wouldn't but we are prepared.
"Make sure you are vaccinated, and I think getting together with all family members to make your own support plan is a good idea.
"Try to include any risks you can think of, and what you can do to ensure these don't occur. Talk to someone you trust if you are feeling anxious."
Toi Te Ora Public Health medical officer of health Dr Bruce Duncan said the Lakes District was "well-prepared" for Omicron, with high vaccination levels, boosters, the child vaccine available and public health measures through the Covid-19 protection framework.
"These measures will help slow the initial spread of Omicron. However, it is important to prepare now for an Omicron outbreak in our communities."
Duncan said Toi Te Ora had been preparing for and responding to Covid outbreaks since early 2020 and response plans had been adapted to deal with the Omicron variant.
Toi Te Ora was working closely with local partners to plan for a comprehensive public health response to living with Covid, he said.
Duncan encouraged people to get vaccinated and get the booster "as soon as you are eligible".
Those who had their second dose at least three months ago and were aged 18 and over were eligible for their booster shot.
"We know this is important in reducing transmission and severe infection from both Delta and Omicron variants."
Unichem Central Pharmacy owner David Honore said there was "high demand" for masks.
While the pharmacy was prepared, he was concerned about what would happen if "half the pharmacy staff get infected".
"It's not going to be easy because getting pharmacy staff is really hard."
Te Arawa Covid-19 Response Hub chairman Monty Morrison said its role was to ensure whānau were getting the support they needed.
It was working with the DHB to ensure people had seven-day access to vaccinations and had seen an increase in families using the Te Arawa drive-through service in the past two weeks, he said.
The Hub was also supporting the new community isolation facility at Lakes Lodge Okataina by ensuring those isolating had access to medical, social, financial and cultural needs.
"We want to support and encourage whānau to have a plan ready to help safely navigate themselves and their whānau through Covid-19 and a pending outbreak in the best way possible. We will continue to share information and resources to our people."
Rotorua mayor Steve Chadwick said "calm and common sense" was needed.
"Local health authorities and health providers have been preparing for outbreaks since Covid-19 arrived, and given the expectation of more cases with Omicron so have businesses and organisations."
Chadwick advised people not to panic buy and to have a plan about managing Omicron if it affected their households.
"If people knock on your door to talk to you about vaccination, please listen. They are trying to help you, your family and the community."
Minister for Covid-19 Response Chris Hipkins said on Friday he had "always been pretty sceptical about the models".
In an interview with Newstalk ZB's Mike Hosking about modelling that had predicted up to 50,000 cases in NZ by Waitangi Day, Hipkins described the calculations as useful, saying it was better to have some modelling than none.
"It's a little bit like the weather forecast. Some nights they say it's going to rain tomorrow and it turns out to be a nice sunny day."
University of Canterbury professor of mathematics and statistics Michael Plank said while models were not perfect or able to 100 per cent predict the future they were a little different from weather forecasts.
"With a model you can ask questions ... [like] what if we shortened the booster gap from four months to three months?"
Plank said modelling was useful from a planning perspective and also gave some indication of priorities in the Covid-19 response.
"When something new comes along, like Covid-19, to start with we're in the dark because we have no direct experience [to use as a reference].
"Modelling gives us a torch. We can't shine it in every direction at once but we can get a feel for what's up ahead."
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