Doctors in Rotorua and Taupō believe there is a "high likelihood" that Christmas and New Year travel will push up transmission rates of Covid-19. Photo / Andrew Warner
Doctors in Rotorua and Taupō believe there is a "high likelihood" that Christmas and New Year travel will push up transmission rates of Covid-19. Photo / Andrew Warner
The "high likelihood" of more Covid-19 cases this summer in the Lakes health board region will bring more staffing challenges to "an already overloaded system", a medical union representative says.
And the "reality" was its hospitals could "only cope with a small number of cases".
But the DHB says itis "probably in a better position for beds than many DHBs". From mid-January, it expected to be fully staffed with junior doctors, and new graduate nurses starting meant there would be "very few" nursing vacancies.
As of Wednesday, Auckland residents could travel outside of the region's boundary for the first time since the country went into alert level 4 lockdown on August 17.
Dr Charlotte Chambers from the Association of Salaried Medical Specialists said doctors in holiday spots such as Rotorua and Taupō had "resigned to the high likelihood" that Christmas and New Year travel would "push up" Covid-19 transmission rates.
Chambers said a "major concern" was the Lakes vaccination rate lagged behind the national average.
Ministry of Health data showed as of December 14, 91 per cent of the eligible Lakes population had received one dose, while 84 per cent were fully vaccinated.
Nationally, the target of 90 per cent of the eligible population being fully vaccinated was hit on Thursday.
Dr Charlotte Chambers from the Association of Salaried Medical Specialists. Photo / Supplied
"So, if Covid takes hold in some parts of the region, there is a high risk of a significant spike in cases."
Chambers said local ICU capacity was "limited" and the reality was it could "only cope with a small number of cases".
"Any surge in Covid admissions will further expose staffing deficits which is worrying, especially for those working in our regional or smaller centres."
One Covid patient in ICU was "much more labour intensive", she said.
"In our smaller hospitals ... if you suddenly have three patients in your ICU, the unit effectively becomes a Covid high-care isolation ward, meaning other ICU patients would have to be treated elsewhere in the hospital.
"That would mean setting up a second 'clean ICU' so as not to spread Covid to non-Covid patients.
"That would definitely bring additional staffing challenges to an already overloaded system."
Chambers said doctors and nurses were "stretched" dealing with busy wards and emergency departments, while at the same time juggling "entrenched" staff shortages.
Lakes DHB chief operating officer Alan Wilson said the DHB was expecting more people to be hospitalised as the number of community cases increased, but this would build up over time and most likely would not be a "major issue" until late January at the earliest.
About 11 per cent of community cases would be hospitalised and 1 to 2 per cent would require ICU care, he said.
Wilson said it had been "really pleasing" to see in metro Auckland, between seven and 10 ICU beds were in use at a time.
"Lakes DHB population is about one-twentieth that of metro Auckland and most Covid patients admitted to hospital did not need admission to ICU," he said.
As a comparison, if Lakes got the same rates of community cases and the same rate of ICU admission, there would be less than one Covid patient in ICU at a time, he said.
The DHB continued to "actively recruit" for vacant positions and new graduate nurses would start in mid-January meaning there would be "very few" other nursing vacancies.
It also expected to be "fully staffed" with junior doctors from mid-January.
Wilson said there had been "a lot of planning" for the holiday period and for an outbreak of Covid.
"Predicting need and managing resource capacity is always a challenge but we are probably in a better position for beds than many DHBs."
The DHB had seven inpatient beds that were not routinely used that could be opened, and there were closed summer beds in paediatrics and in the Taupō Inpatient Unit.
Three additional beds would be available in the older persons rehabilitation service in March.
Te Runanga o Ngati Pikiao GP Dr Grace Malcolm. Photo / Andrew Warner
Te Rūnanga o Ngāti Pikiao GP Dr Grace Malcolm said Māori health providers had been preparing for Covid to spread in the community.
"Huge numbers of our whānau have stood up to this challenge and become fully vaccinated and it's been an amazing effort," she said.
"While vaccinations will continue, our focus is turning to how we will support whānau and our community who are vulnerable, unvaccinated and at risk."
Malcolm said there were good systems and processes in place to support whānau "in this next phase."
"You will be supported through this journey."
Te Arawa Covid Hub co-chair and Te Arawa Whānau Ora chairman Te Ururoa Flavell. Photo / Andrew Warner
Te Arawa Covid Hub co-chair and Te Arawa Whānau Ora chairman Te Ururoa Flavell said Te Arawa welcomed whānau, friends and manuhiri to the rohe for Christmas and the summer season, and expected people to follow the "golden rules".
This included staying home if feeling sick, scanning and wearing a mask in public spaces, he said.
"If everyone follows this kaupapa ... then we will protect and care for our whānau by limiting the spread of Covid in our community."
