BERL's Rotorua Lakes District Population Projections report shows increased expectations for population growth for Rotorua in the coming years.
"Retail trade in Rotorua is growing at a robust rate, with the value of retail sales on electronic cards rising by 4.8 per cent in the December 2014 quarter from a year earlier," the Infometrics report stated.
"Tourism is a key part of Rotorua's economy, with Infometrics' estimates showing the sector represents 9.8 per cent of Rotorua's Gross Domestic Product (GDP), compared with tourism's 3.8 per cent share of GDP nationally.
"International visitor spending during each month in the December 2014 quarter was, on average, 26 per cent higher than a year earlier, while spending by domestic visitors was up a healthy 8.3 per cent."
According to Infometrics the forestry sector was also on the improve and conditions in Rotorua's labour market had improved.
"Infometrics estimates that Rotorua's unemployment rate in 2014 averaged 7.4 per cent, down from 8.7 per cent a year earlier. Better job prospects encouraged a positive net migration inflow into Rotorua of 443 people in 2014, compared with a net outflow of 79 people in 2013."
The BERL report presented three different population projections for the district - a relatively conservative "Business-As-Usual" scenario, a middle-of-the-road "Reality Check" model, and the third more optimistic "Strategy Stretch" projection.
"In all three cases, the population of the district is projected to continue increasing," the report stated.
"However, population increase should not be taken as a given. If, for any reason, the economy fails to grow in the way expected, employment opportunities will fail to eventuate and young adults will leave the district, as they have in the past."
The "Business-As-Usual" scenario states "total employment will rise from 28,545 in 2013 to 36,731 in 2036. This rise in employment will lead to a population increase of just over 5000 people between 2013 and 2036".
The "Reality Check" model states "total employment will rise from 28,545 in 2013 to 42,110 in 2036. This rise in employment will lead to a population increase of nearly 14,000 between 2013 and 2036".
The "Strategy Stretch" projection states "total employment will rise from 28,545 in 2013 to 45,663 in 2036. This rise in employment will lead to a population increase of just over 20,000 between 2013 and 2036".
"To me these reports affirm that our Vision 2030 has got some depth and we are staring to see the first real signs of growth.
"There are more people choosing to live here than there were 10 years ago and that's just great. I see this in our citizenship ceremonies," Mayor Steve Chadwick said.
"We, as a community, are on the move ... this is just great, to see reports that confirm what we are hearing anecdotally."
Deputy mayor Dave Donaldson said the picture was far from complete "but it does show things are moving in the right direction, which is a positive change given the challenging environment we've endured during the last few years."
For an in-depth look at the two reports and what they mean for the city, see tomorrow's Rotorua Daily Post.
