Data from Statistics New Zealand shows the Bay's GDP had the third highest increase in the year ending March 2021. Photo / NZME
Data from Statistics New Zealand shows the Bay's GDP had the third highest increase in the year ending March 2021. Photo / NZME
The Bay of Plenty is flying in the face of the pandemic, recording "impressive" economic growth.
However, an economist believes the wider region's performance could be masking a different reality in Rotorua.
The region recorded the third-highest regional gross domestic product increase in the country in the year to March2021, new data from Statistics New Zealand reveals.
Its GDP, which refers to the total value of the goods and services it produced, rose 2.8 per cent in that time, only behind Marlborough and Tasman/Nelson with 3.8 and 3.1 per cent respectively.
The data reports the Bay of Plenty's overall GDP at $19.319 million in the year ending March 2021, up from $18.795m the year before.
GDP per capita was $58,056, up from $57,760, and just behind the national average of $63,955.
Stats NZ's data also shows an overall economic slowdown. Before the pandemic, New Zealand's GDP rose by 5.9 per cent. By March 2021 that figure had fallen to a GDP increase of 0.8 per cent.
Economist Brad Olsen said the wider Bay region's numbers could mask the true state of Rotorua's economy and Rotorua Chamber of Commerce chief executive Bryce Heard agreed,
He was doubtful Rotorua's GDP was as high as the rest of the region's.
"There are so many different forces pushing and pulling at the economy," Heard said.
"Building is booming. Farming is steady and forestry is ticking along. Then there's inflation, rising freight costs, interest rates and the energy crisis.
"On balance, there's probably more negative forces than positive ones."
Heard said the overall economic outlook for Rotorua was concerning and he wasn't expecting significant improvement in the next half of the year.
"That's my guess but it's a hard one to pick."
Olsen said that overall, while the Bay of Plenty's growth was slower than in previous years, it was "impressive".
"The region's had strong horticultural and dairy exports and we know that Whakatāne in particular experienced a lot of domestic tourism in March 2021."
Economist Brad Olsen. Photo / Tania Whyte
Olsen said while the Stats NZ numbers did not account for inflation or the effect of price on demand, the data "gelled" with what businesses were seeing.
"GDP is basically a measure of how much economic stuff is happening," Olsen said.
"An increase in GDP means the economy is doing more. More haircuts are being given out, more butter is being made, more building's been done, more wood has been cut."
In theory, Olsen said, households could feel the economic growth in job availability and wages.
Ōhope resident Ria Brosnahan said her businesses were experiencing an "unusual growth situation".
"We can honestly say up to December we have had more positive growth than the year before."
Brosnahan is a grandmother and co-owner of JB and HA Brosnahan Ltd. Brosnahan's businesses centre around wood and farming.
Ōhope resident and business owner Ria Brosnahan. Photo / Supplied
"Farming has been pretty static," Brosnahan said.
"But our wood chip business saw a substantial increase in turnover for year ending June 2021."
Brosnahan, who raised 10 children with her late husband John, thought many products were "definitely more expensive" these days.
"Some prices have gone up by a third. You can rarely buy broccoli for under $3," Brosnahan said.
"I'm not feeding a large family [any more]. I've always grown my own vegetables and as farmers we have our own meat.
"[Without that] I would find it very hard. It makes you wonder how families can afford things like meat."
Brosnahan said households needed to be "a lot smarter to survive" in 2022.
A new Canstar report has revealed New Zealanders' biggest financial worries, poor savings habits and the rising number of those who have given up on owning their own home.
Rotorua Economic Development chief executive Andrew Wilson said businesses operating within the visitor industry were still suffering.
Rotorua Economic Development chief executive Andrew Wilson. Photo / Andrew Warner
"It would be fair to say that the regional GDP figures do mask the underlying impact felt by our tourism operators and the wider visitor industry."
Wilson said the district's tourism operators would benefit from a funding package similar to the one received by five South Island regions in 2021.
"As a destination that has always been heavily reliant on international visitors, Rotorua has been similarly impacted which presents a strong case for additional funding support."
