Ranfurly Shield rugby: How your team can win the Log of Wood in 2023

With Wellington surviving Saturday’s first Ranfurly Shield game of the season, Wednesday night sees Tasman challenge for the famous Log O’ Wood. As rugby tragics know, a Shield challenge can only happen when played at the holders’ home ground and isn’t contested during final rounds of the NPC. As things stands now only a few teams have matches booked in and other teams have a winding, treacherous path to a shot at Shield glory.

Auckland

What they need: When you think Ranfurly Shield, you can’t help but think of the great Auckland Shield era of 1985-1993, with 61 successful defences. To bring the Shield home to Eden Park this year will take everything to break the right way. Tasman, North Harbour, Otago and Taranaki would need wins before Auckland travelled down Surf Highway in week eight.

Form: Improving.

Path: Troubled and treacherous. Of all the NPC sides, Auckland’s path has the most obstacles. Tell ‘em they’re dreaming.

Taranaki

What they need: Taranaki has had a recent love affair with the Shield, and the chance to have another dance with the shield will be a revenge game for their last shield loss. They had a four-day reign after one of the better NPC games of recent years, where all the Barretts played a role in defeating an All Blacks-laden Canterbury team. They’ll need Tasman, North Harbour and Otago to all have successful Shield challenges this season before going to Forsyth Barr stadium in week 7.

Form: Pretty good.

Path: Troubled and treacherous.

Likelihood? Like Auckland, The ’Naki need a whole heap of factors to fall their way – unlikely.

Matty McKenzie, of Taranaki, scores against Waikato. Photo / Photosport

Bay of Plenty

What they need: The Bay haven’t had that many dances with the Shield, but their centenary year win in 2004 was one of the competition’s finest rugby moments. A short Shield defence means the Steamers want another shot at glory. That shot will need to come with plenty of luck; they need Tasman, North Harbour and Northland to all have Shield victories and then a successful scalping in Whangārei.

Form: Not bad.

Path: Troubled and treacherous. Like Auckland and the ’Naki, this just doesn’t feel like it’s going to happen. Cool your steaming jets.

Manawatū

Kick off: The Turbos haven’t held the Shield since the 1970s. They will need Tasman to win the Shield and to defend it against North Harbour for the straightest line to a challenge in week 5. If Wellington beats Tasman, Manawatū will need a Counties win in round 5 for a challenge at Navigation Homes Stadium in week 8.

Form: It’s a touch better than previous seasons but still not great.

Path: Tough. It’s a tall order, as the teams who could win the Shield in these pathways would probably put Manuwatū to the turbines.

Otago

What they need: Otago are another team that needs a little luck to have a Shield challenge in 2023. They need Tasman to beat Wellington on Wednesday, North Harbour to wrestle it off them the following week and then a successful defence against Waikato the week after that.

Form: Improving.

Path: A tougher journey than hauling up your average Southern Alp.

Kieran McClea, of Otago, looks for a gap in the match against Hawke's Bay. Photo / Getty Images

Waikato

What they need: Waikato has a proud history with the Ranfurly Shield – they’ve held the thing 13 times. To make that 14 they need a bit of luck. Tasman will need to win this week, then give it up a few days later to North Harbour. Harbour will then face a challenge against a Waikato team that has struggled to find consistent form this season but know what the Shield means to Mooloo nation.

Form: Yo-yoing.

Path: Tough. Mooloo form and a big change of hands makes this feel like climbing Mt. Everest, or at the very least a foggy day fumbling around on Pirongia.

Southland

What they need: They’ve already lost a challenge this season, going down 39-17 to Wellington in round 3. They’ll need a Counties win in round 5 to get another opportunity to challenge in 2023.

Form: It’s better than 2022 and they love a Shield game.

Path: Tough. The Stags could get up over Counties but it means that Counties need to get up over Wellington. There’s a shot but there’s a big crosswind and the stag heard a branch snapping.

Northland

Northland haven’t held the Shield since the late-70s, and will need a Tasman victory and a North Harbour win to set up a Shield challenge as part of the Battle of the Holiday Highway in week 7.

Form: Pretty good.

Path: Tough. Needing to change hands like a dodgy import, despite Northland looking sharp, might make this Taniwha wait until 2024.

Canterbury

What they need: Canterbury haven’t had a meaningful Shield run since the early-2000s when they had reigns of 23 and 14 defences. They’ll need a Steelers win in Round 5 to ensure a chance to take the Shield back to the Mainland, to raise the level of optimism they’d face a Steelers team that plays three games in 11 days.

Form: Pretty great.

Path: Feasible. Counties have to confidently cruise into the capital and clutch the Shield from Wellington and then turn around against the Stags, keep it and then lose to Canterbury. She’s a stretch.

Ben Funnell, of Canterbury, holds his ground against Manawatū. Photo Photosport

Counties Manukau

What they need: Counties have a Shield challenge booked in for Round 5. Wellington would have come off three games in the preceding two weeks, including a Shield challenge against Tasman and normal service against Canterbury. With Counties having finally notched up their first win since September 2022 they might get on a roll, but it’s yet to be proven if that roll rolls outside of Pukekohe.

Form: Plucky but untravelled.

Path: Looks easier than it is. Wellington clings to the log until Round 5, Counties travels. A very slim chance.

North Harbour

What they need: North Harbour has a couple of options to bag the Shield this season. If Wellington retains it against Tasman this week, Harbour gets to challenge in week 8. If Tasman finds a way to win then they’ll get a challenge in week 4.

Form: Yo-yoing.

Path: Easy. It’s potentially one of the clearest paths with a shot in week 8 against current holders or one in week 4 against decent challengers in Tasman. Harbour, who aren’t looking as strong as 2022, might find it a tall order.

Hawke’s Bay

What they need: The Magpies have an opportunity to gain revenge on Wellington, having lost the Shield to them last season. Hawke’s Bay put their stamp on the on Log o’wood in the 2010′s, having the two longest runs. They will make the trip to Sky Stadium in Week 9.

Form: Pretty good.

Path: Easy (requires patience). Wellington must hang on until Round 9, and The Magpies will want to build into strong form. It’s likely-ish.

Tasman

What they need: Tasman get their Shield challenge early this season, facing Wellington on a short week after a surprise loss to struggling Northland. For Tasman, the Northland loss reeks of a banana skin that won’t mean much to the coaches or team if they’re prepping for the big one midweek. For Wellington, the second Shield challenge in seven days will be tough, following the spirited Stags effort.

Form: Great.

Path: Wednesday night. Based on all scheduled games and Tasman’s form, right now, this is the likeliest shot at a steal for the NPC season.

Wellington

What they need: If they can hold the Shield until the end of the season, they will have bagged the longest Shield reign for Wellington since the 1920s. No game for the Log O’ Wood can be taken as easy, but if Wellington gets past Tasman on Wednesday they might not be seriously challenged until the Magpies in the final round.

Form: Solid.

Path: Moderate. Likelihood of locking away for the summer? Not bad.