Last season saw a double-down as Sharp N Smart won the Herbie Dyke, which he defends today, while Prowess won the Bonecrusher NZ Stakes, suggesting the three-year-old crop were the real deal and the results since have franked that.
So it is a good rule of thumb: if the three-year-olds can beat the older horses at weight-for-age, the crop will produce elite horses in the years to come.
If Crocetti can justify his favouritism today, or Quintessa or Solidify surprise, those they have been racing against in their age group will bask in a reflected glory and the whole crop get rated more highly.
Crocetti is the most likely one to embellish his mates, especially as he should sit handy to the pace while key rivals like Waitak and Dragon Leap could be a few horses back.
The last time Crocetti was let loose down the Te Rapa straight after a run like that, he blazed his final 400m of the Sarten Memorial in a sizzling 22.21 seconds and he is stronger now and will carry less weight with 55.5kg today.
That will take some catching.
Speaking of three-year-old crops, last year’s one should get some upgrades via Legarto or Sharp N Smart in today’s $600,000 Herbie Dyke Stakes, while another member Adam I Am is the horse to beat in the new $350,000 Sir Patrick Hogan Karapiro Classic.
The three-year-old fillies on this season reach their fork in the road in the $175,000 Ellis Classic, with who goes on to the Oaks, and who heads to Australia, the spelling paddock or drops back in future trips set to be decided.
Waikato Weather Watch
Te Rapa boss Butch Castles doesn’t hold back on the crucial role the weather will play for today’s huge meeting.
Rain is forecast for today, although whether it turns up or not is anybody’s guess.
Te Rapa started yesterday a Soft 5, likely to improve to a Good 4 overnight and Castles says if the rain comes it won’t be welcome.
“The track is great and has been irrigated enough that if rain does fall they should be able to get their toe into it,” he told the Herald.
“But any time you have rain on the day for a summer meeting it can see the track cut up a bit, so obviously we’d love to see it stay away.”
It would take an unexpected turn in the weather for the track to get wet enough to affect most of today’s leading chances, all of whom have form on tracks at least rated a Soft 6.
Probably the most important “watch” for punters will be if rain does come, whether the inside cuts up and loses its natural advantage.
Legends return
As good or even great as Legarto and Crocetti may perform today, they will still need to do something special to be the best horses on track.
The three Group races and the new $350,000 Sir Patrick Hogan Karapiro Classic aside, today is also Legend’s Day, with Te Rapa showing respect to some of New Zealand’s special gallopers.
Nine galloping greats will parade and be available for pics and pats before leading each field out for the day.
They include Xcellent, The Bostonian, Gingernuts, Sacred Star, Mufhasa, Sir Slick and NZ-bred Hong Kong stars Werther and Ping Hai Star.
They will be joined by one mare in Seachange, who is still achieving wonderful things, with her unbeaten grandson Storm Boy being sold to Coolmore Stud this week in a deal that could be worth A$60 million ($63.5m) if he wins the Golden Slipper and some other major races at two and three.
