Incoming and outgoing MPs have arrived in Wellington as National leader Christopher Luxon and Act leader David Seymour sound each other out ahead of opening formal talks on the shape of the next Government.
The first call between the leaders was scheduled for Sunday evening.
The pair speak frequently. Seymour told Q+A they were “talking all day... on and off” on election day itself, but Sunday evening’s call is the beginning of their journey together as governing partners.
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Yesterday, Luxon and other high-ranking party members gathered in his Remuera home for a three-hour strategy meeting. Among the National Party MPs arriving were Todd McClay, Simeon Brown, Paul Goldsmith, Chris Bishop and deputy leader Nicola Willis. National Party president Sylvia Wood and Luxon’s chief of staff Cameron Burrows also attended
Luxon said the purpose of the meeting was to “digest the election results” and think about the next steps.
He remained tight-lipped on what had been decided, not answering whether the party had firmed up when it might conduct talks with members of the Act Party or New Zealand First. On Monday morning, Luxon confirmed he had reached out to both parties.
“I said we won’t do it through the media, we’ll do it directly with the parties involved out of respect to them,” Luxon said.
“There’s a bit of volatility sitting there but we’ll carry on working with the parties directly. We know that the result is going to bounce around a little bit and that’s the thing that we need to see how that’s going to button down.”
Luxon will head to Wellington today. Seymour will be down this week too. They will be accompanied, also on Monday, by members of the New Zealand First caucus. By midweek, Wellington, empty of politicians since August, will be buzzing with new MPs.
Flights to the capital were booked out on Sunday as MPs - victorious and vanquished - flocked back to Wellington. And while this is all ostensibly for Orientation Week for new MPs to learn the job and get acquainted with their new caucuses, the three likely parties of government will launch into more strenuous negotiations.
Already, the two minor parties to the Government are circling each other, attempting to bolster their negotiating position before special votes are declared on November 3.
Act, whose negotiation team is likely to include leader Seymour, deputy Brooke van Velden, chief of staff Andrew Ketels, and a member of the party’s board, possibly Catherine Isaac, is keen for a two-party Government.
Seymour is talking down the possibility of going into government with NZ First, saying that it was “possible” but not necessarily “likely”.
“Special votes haven’t been counted yet,” Seymour said.
On election night too, Seymour said the voters had delivered National and Act enough to govern alone.
Barely.
The current counts gives National 50 seats and Act 11. Add in an extra seat from the Port Waikato byelection and you have 62, a majority of one seat in what would then be a 122-seat Parliament. The risk for National is not only that this majority might not be large enough to survive any mid-term blow-ups, which have become a fairly frequent occurrence for both big parties, but that it might lose a few seats when the final result, including special votes, is published on November 3.
National tends to do poorly with special votes. In fact, campaign chair Chris Bishop told Q+A he expects to lose “at least one seat” on specials.
National and its team is giving itself room to breathe, and leaving the door open to some form of arrangement with NZ First.
After watching the rugby on Sunday morning, Luxon fronted a media conference, talking up his ability as a team-builder and negotiator.
“I’m a person who likes to bring teams together and make sure that I get the best out of that team and use all the skills that are in that team,” Luxon said.
“I’ve done a lot of mergers and acquisitions. I’ve done a lot of negotiations,” he said.
The party’s negotiating team is likely to include Luxon, Willis, Bishop, and chief of staff Burrows.
Paul Goldsmith was also spotted at Luxon’s house yesterday as part of his inner circle “brains trust” meeting.
Peters is known to like and trust Gerry Brownlee, who is likely to be deployed in negotiations with NZ First, as well as McClay, who has known Peters for decades - his father Roger McClay served in National’s caucus with Peters in the 1980s, before he split to join NZ First. McClay was also at Luxon’s meeting yesterday.
Luxon is saying kinder things about Peters than any National leader since perhaps Jim Bolger, saying he was “very appreciative” of Peters’ conciliatory tone on Saturday night.
“I really appreciated Winston Peter’s remarks, on his offer of help, and wanting to act in New Zealand’s interests. I respect that,” Luxon said.
At the end of Sunday’s strategy meeting, Luxon could not even confirm or deny whether he had spoken to Peters yet.
Peters, as is typical, is giving nothing away, but was stressing his desire to wait for special votes.
“We’ve got to talk to my colleagues first, and then we’ve got to decide what we’re going to do and who we’re doing it with,” he said on Sunday.
“I’m waiting to know what the final result of this election is and it’s clear we won’t know until the third of November,” Peters said.
Privately, however, the party wants to get National to come to the table earlier, knowing it may be easier to deal with Peters’ offer to work cooperatively now when National and Act have a majority, than having to beg Peters to pick up the phone should that majority disappear.
The party is keen to exploit the leverage it has now before the final count is known on November 3. If they wait, there is a chance they might not be needed at all.
Their negotiating team, at a minimum, will be Peters, his lieutenant Shane Jones, and former MP Darroch Ball.
NZ First is trying to increase the pressure on National to get them to a deal while the numbers still look favourable, rather than risk things turning against the party on special votes.
They know they can exploit the fear of the still-very-likely scenario that National and Act will lose their majority when special votes are tallied, giving Peter’s additional leverage.
They want National to get to the table quickly and negotiate a deal in principle quickly, exploiting National’s fear that its stronger negotiating position will weaken after special votes are counted and the final numbers are revealed on November 3.
The party knows it will be in the outer orbit of the Government. Luxon and Seymour have chemistry that Luxon and Peters do not have - and that Peters and Seymour will probably never have.
NZ First knows there are some easy things National can offer: the return of former fiefdoms in the primary industries: forestry, fisheries, perhaps state-owned enterprises.
The most difficult NZ First ask will be a second Covid-19 inquiry, on top of the Royal Commission launched by Labour.
This is firming up as something of a “bottom line” for the party, which knows it has soared above the 5 per cent threshold at least partly thanks to soaking up the support of people left angry and disaffected by the Covid response. The party has said this could be the pretext to offering compensation to people who lost jobs because of vaccine mandates and proven vaccine injuries.
But this sort of thing is not something National and Act would be likely to agree to, however, NZ First wants it dearly, remembering the way that firearm owners turned on the party in the wake of its support of gun reforms after March 15.
Labour MPs will also head to Wellington this week. Only two new MPs will be welcomed into its caucus, such was the devastation of the party’s loss.
Today will see a caretaker Cabinet meet, and on Tuesday the party’s caucus will convene, and the party will farewell its crop of MPs who failed to make it back. They get one last perk from Parliament (along with their salaries for another three months): a return flight to Wellington to clear out their offices.
Labour’s caucus must hold a vote to endorse Chris Hipkins’ leadership within three months of polling day. Hipkins needs a 60 per cent majority to survive that vote - if he decides to take it that far.
He may decide to fall on his sword ahead of the vote, triggering Labour’s complicated electoral college system for electing a leader. It will be the first time since 2014 that caucus, unions and members have been asked for their say on who the Labour leader should be.
Labour MPs and candidates were saying nothing on Sunday, with campaign chair Megan Woods the only one doing any speaking for the party.
She said it needed to “regroup as a party and have a look at what’s happened”.
“Like any party in this situation, we have to go away and reassess where we’re at and what this all means for us. But we will regroup. We’ve done it before,” she said.
Thomas Coughlan is Deputy Political Editor and covers politics from Parliament. He has worked for the Herald since 2021 and has worked in the press gallery since 2018.
