The Waikato DHB has been working with a range of health and welfare providers across the region to plan for an increase in case numbers. Photo / Supplied
The Waikato DHB has been working with a range of health and welfare providers across the region to plan for an increase in case numbers. Photo / Supplied
With Omicron now in the Waikato, the local district health board is working on adjusting the region's Covid-19 response and initial modelling that forecasts a peak of thousands of cases per month in the Waikato.
The initial modelling based on overseas data predicts a gradual rise of cases in the Waikato across January and February, and nationally, it projected that up to 50,000 new cases would be emerging by Waitangi Day. But the Ministry of Health reported "only" 209 cases today, of which 51 are in Waikato.
Covid-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins says he has always been sceptical on the models based on overseas data, but still finds them useful.
"It's better to have some modelling than no modelling. It's a little bit like the weather forecast. Some nights they say it's going to rain tomorrow and it turns out being a nice sunny day."
As health officials are able to track the virus within New Zealand and the Waikato, they are working on improving the accuracy of the modelling incorporating localised data.
Despite cases beginning to rise, Waikato DHB Covid-19 response director Maree Munro says the majority of people should be able to safely isolate at home.
"This is why it is important that we each have a family isolation plan in place for how to get groceries and any medication or other supplies we need while isolating. There will be a smaller number of people who need additional health and welfare support in the community."
She assures the Waikato community the DHB has been working with a range of health and welfare providers across the region to plan for an increase in case numbers and to have resources in place.
The local response will be led by community hubs that support co-ordination between providers, to enable a whānau-centred approach which links public health, primary care, community care, and welfare services.
Waikato DHB Covid-19 response director Maree Munro. Photo / Supplied
Another important resource is booster shots, Munro says. "[They] have been proven to provide significantly greater protection and the DHB is strongly encouraging everyone who is eligible to get their boosters done.
"The gap between second and booster shots is now just three months which will mean a large number of people are now eligible. This is the best way you can protect yourself, your whānau, and your community."
In Waikato, 246,351 people are now eligible for their booster and the latest available figures show 113,797 boosters have been given out to date.
As case numbers rise it is expected demand for hospital care will increase. The current model estimates about 350 people will need hospital care each month over the peak period of March and April. This would mean close to 50 beds for Covid patients alone would be needed during peak days.
The DHB's executive director hospital and community services, Christine Lowry, says this is a significant number.
"But we do know from overseas data that those who require hospital care for Omicron tend to have less acute illness and shorter stays in hospital than with previous variants.
"While case numbers are lower, relative to the predicted peak, we expect to manage the majority of patients in one ward at Waikato Hospital. As we encounter higher numbers we would continue to use that ward for Covid-19 positive patients, while also dedicating other areas in speciality wards to cohort patients who are admitted with another condition but happen to be Covid-19 positive."
She says that during the peak in Covid cases, as staff and hospital resources are dedicated to high numbers of coronavirus patients, it will be necessary to reduce services including outpatient clinics and elective procedures. "This will allow us to free up staff to redeploy and provide capacity to manage demand for acute and urgent services."
If required, Thames Hospital is able to manage Covid-positive patients, but those requiring acute care would be transferred to Waikato Hospital. Covid-positive patients in Te Kuiti, Tokoroa and Taumarunui Hospitals would also be transferred to Waikato Hospital.
