Tennis: Finest field ever ready to serve

Men like Tsonga could make it to the last four at least. Photo / AP

1 Can the 'Fed Express' stop the Rafa train?

Roger Federer thought he had guaranteed it, now Rafael Nadal thinks he can steal it. More than ever before, 2011 will be a battle to define immortality.

When the Swiss master equalled Pete Sampras' record of 14 Grand Slams in 2009, then extended the mark to 16 in Melbourne last year, it seemed Federer had set a record for the ages.

At the same time it was doubtful that Nadal would claim another major; his powers were on the wane, confidence and belief gone, the body creaking. Rickety knees had forced him out of the Australian Open; he hadn't won a title in nine months and could no longer beat top 10 players.

Since those dark times Nadal has claimed every grand slam available and now has nine. His willingness to improve and redesign his game was best epitomised by the tweaking of his serve in New York last year which made it a genuine weapon. His comment at the US Open - "I don't go to the practice court to practise. I go to the practice court to learn." - was illuminating.

Federer doesn't need his $90,000 Rolex to tell him time is ticking. He will turn 30 this year and history shows you don't win majors after that milestone. Boris Becker, Ivan Lendl, John McEnroe, Mats Wilander and Stephan Edberg are among those who couldn't. Andre Agassi claimed one in 18 attempts after 30, Jimmy Connors one in 25 despite reaching two finals and eight semifinals.

Federer also knows that one, or perhaps two more grand slams will put him beyond the reach of the Spaniard and ensure his rightful status. This more than anything seems to have driven him over the last year.

He has conceded the No1ranking to Nadal and has no great designs on getting it back. Though he would never admit it, Federer cares little about the other tournaments and his schedule and training seem increasingly designed to optimise his grand slam chances. He also knows Roland Garros is virtually unobtainable and he has looked increasingly fragile at Wimbledon.

Come New York in September, he will have begun his fourth decade and have another season behind him. Melbourne is the place; his best chance for another dose of major magic. If Federer defends his crown he will go ahead of Agassi and Ken Rosewall and become the first man in the Open era to win five Australian Open titles.

Meanwhile, Nadal is searching for the 'Rafa Slam' (holding all four major titles at one time). In 2010 Nadal adopted a sensible schedule, cutting down on tournaments and taking more breaks. This paid off, but the Spaniard has always coveted the No 1 ranking (despite his frequent protestations when he was No 2) which can only be protected by competing in a lot of events. The juggling act will define Nadal's year.

Australia was a nightmare for Nadal last year. He was injured in the quarter-final defeat against Andy Murray but the Scotsman had his measure regardless. His management must take some of the blame, as he was engaged in numerous off-court activities which diluted his focus. It was quite bizarre to read a blog from Nadal in the Australian newspapers each day.

Murray could be the key. They will be seeded to meet in the semis, and the Brit has been Nadal's nemesis on hardcourt. Both of Nadal's hardcourt grand slams have come when Murray suffered a surprise exit - Fernando Verdasco doing the job at the Australian Open in2009 and Stanislas Wawrinka last year in New York.

If he makes the final, Nadal would be unbackable. He has won nine of 11 grand slam deciders (Federer 16 of 22) and his mental capacity to ignore pressure is unmatched.

His recent virus is a concern and the Swiss beat him in London at the ATP world tour finals in December, though Federer has not topped Nadal in a grand slam final since 2007.

Nadal leads their head to head by 14-8 (though 12 have been on clay) and is 5-2 in grand slam finals versus Federer.

2 Is this Andy Murray's last chance?

As another year passes without a grand slam breakthrough, it is increasingly a case of if, not when, the Scotsman wins for Queen and country. There is no doubt that Murray is a fine player, exceptional even,and the best British male since Fred Perry. But is that enough?

He is entering his seventh year as a professional, and has played in 20 grand slams. Murray doesn't need reminding that Nadal had six by the same stage, and even late-blooming Federer three. Wilander won a major on his fifth attempt; McEnroe took six, Edberg 11, Novak Djokovic and Juan Carlos Ferrero 13 and Juan Martin Del Potro 14.

While the 23-year-old Murray has time on his side, there are always contenders emerging. Del Potro is back on the scene in 2011, while Tomas Berdych and Robin Soderling are becoming genuine threats. Djokovic has another major in him and Jo Wilfried Tsonga is equipped one day to repeat the heroics of 2008, where he reached the final.

Murray reached the final superbly last year but ultimately failed - not because he choked, but through lack of aggression at crucial moments. He's the best defender in the game but that doesn't win big titles, except maybe at Roland Garros. Murray's best chance in 2011could be Melbourne. He is super fit and always seems to start each year in better shape than his peers, lacking the rustiness that dogs others. The hard court surface suits his game perfectly though there are question marks over his ability in the worst of the heat.

He will never win the French Open and his prospects are lessened at Wimbledon, more by the grass surface than the famed weight of expectation - 65 million Brits will hope not, but 2011 could be Murray's last chance to dance.

3 Which Juan Martin Del Potro will we see?

He broke the greatest duopoly tennis has ever seen. Nobody had ever beaten Federer or Nadal in a grand slam final - except themselves. That was until the 1.98m monster from Argentina emerged, with a thunderbolt serve and belligerent forehand. He wasn't the greatest mover but didn't need to be with his reach and power.

At the 2009 US Open he became the first and only man to beat both Nadal and Federer in the same major tournament. Apart from ability,thethen20-year-olddisplayed an iron will, being three points from defeat in the final against Federer before rallying to win in five sets. Then he virtually disappeared.

The problems started in Melbourne last year; he carried a wrist injury into the tournament, endured three five-set battles and was knocked out in the fourth round by Marin Cilic. He withdrew from subsequent tournaments and elected to have surgery in May.

Unkind rumours began to surface about his state of mind, that his belief was in need of repair.

As comebacks were continually postponed throughout the back half of 2010, Argentine media wondered if he wanted to play again; if he could face up to the expectation that his achievements created.

He is back, and the world No 259 will be at Melbourne courtesy of a protected ranking. He lost in the first round in Sydney last week, and has a 1-3 record since he came back. "When you lose, it's hard, but nowit's different, I have different sensations," he said. "I am very far off my good game but I did my best. I have my wrist in good shape."

This Australian Open will be too soon for the South American, but the tallest man ever to win a grand slam may yet tower over tennis again in 2011.

4 Will there ever be another random champion?

Golf majors still throw up unexpected winners but tennis grand slams have become a dragon's domain. Outsiders need not apply. The last genuine surprise was the unseeded Gaston Gaudio at the 2004 French Open. The world No 44 also became the first man ever to lose the opening set 6-0 in the final and go on and win. In previous times, unlikely champions were more common.

Think of Pete Sampras (1990) and Pat Rafter (1997) at the US Open, Goran Ivanisevic (2001), Richard Krajicek (1997) and Agassi (1992) at Wimbledon and Albert Costa (2002), Carlos Moya (1998),Gustavo Kuerten (1997) and Michael Chang (1989) in Paris.

Over the years the Australian Open has also witnessed advanced underdog fare. The extreme heat, combined with early season rust, can help outsiders.

What are the chances another Thomas Johansson (2002), Yevgeny Kafelnikov (1999) or Petr Korda (1998) this year? Not great, it would seem. The top guns are ready to fire and, in a strange quirk, the 2011 event will be the first grand slam ever to feature every single member of the top 100 - the strongest field of all time. Men like Tsonga (13), Cilic (15), Nikolay Davydenko (23), Ernests Gulbis (24) and David Nalbandian (27) appeal as players who could catch fire and make a run to the last four at least.

5 Is serve and volley extinct?

In the 1980s, net rushing was necessary. In the 1990s, it was nice to have.Now it is almost negligible. It has been almost a decade since men like Rafter, Sampras and Ivanisevic stalked the front court and found grand slam success. Federer has a beautiful volley but wins most of his points from the baseline; in majors finals you could count the amount of time he follows his serve in on one hand. There are sound reasons for this. Racquet technology means passing shots come at increasing ferocity.

The surfaces at the Australian and US Opens have steadily changed in favour of baseliners with quicker speed and higher bounces while Wimbledon has been slowed to lessen the impact of the big serves.

While fortune always favours the brave, the probabilities mean going forward too often becomes foolhardy. However, it can be an effective tactic and may come into play in Melbourne. Murray's demise last year was partly down to his reluctance to attack the net. Tsonga slam-dunked Federer in 2008 with virtuoso volleying while one recipe to beat Nadal is to avoid endless duels from the back of the court.