If you get the trifecta on the $200,000 Makfi Challenge today Christmas will almost certainly come early, but the race may not be the safest punting vehicle.
With eight of the 13 acceptors resuming from spells, the race has a risk factor about it.
Wall Street can be almost guaranteed to be among the trifecta and will be the solid pick to win of many, but nominating the first three home is not easy.
There is a very good chance one of the three placegetters will be at good odds
Not that the remainder of the Hastings programme looks easy, but there are some useful each-way chances.
One of them is Ginner Hart (No2, R1). You just had to be impressed with Ginner Hart's debut win at Trentham back in April. He looked no chance to win at the 300m, but charged home late to just get the decision. He looks like a horse who will go on with it and will benefit from Alexander Fieldes having spelled him immediately after that win. There is plenty of emerging talent facing him. Most have had sparse experience, but don't disregard the most raced horse in the field in Queen Boudicca (No1). She has raced against stronger opposition than any of these.
Royal Queen (No4, R2) created an impression when she won at Ruakaka two starts back and looked home for all money at the 200m at Te Rapa two weeks ago. She was run down by a very smart horse in Knight's Command and doesn't face one as good as him today. Frockstar (No7) is promising though.
November Rain (No3, R5) is something of a mystery. There is no doubting her class, but she can mix up her efforts confusingly. The two runs she has been given this preparation will have her fit for today and if she is coming back to her best form this woud be a good time to show it. Innocent Lady (No9) may not have a big body, but there's nothing wrong with the size of her heart as she showed when winning fresh up at Te Rapa recently.
Baldovino (No5, R6) is perhaps the best emerging talent we've seen in months. He's had only the two race starts, but he's won them in the manner of a horse heading for the headlines. He's had a nice four weeks since his Te Rapa victory and that should have him in peak shape. Pretty good field with Ballroom (No8), No Excuse Maggie (No1) and Vault (No4) all musts for trifecta bettors.
The 58kg on a 4-year-old mare is a worry for Smoulder (No2, R7), but for a horse that beat Banchee into second in the Eight Carat Classic, finished a head from Barinka at group one and finished fourth (promoted to third) in the 1000 Guineas she almost has the class to cope. She resumed in the Foxbridge Plate and her third to Fritzy Boy at weight-for-age is enough to suggest she is a top chance in a R94 despite the weight. Neversaynever (No4) beat stablemate Jimmy Choux in a training gallop and even though there were reasons for it, it at least showed the mare is fit to resume.
Forget the paper form of Twilight Savings (No5, R8). She was never quite right after the battering she received in the 1000 Guineas and will have benefited from a winter spell. This is an excellent field, but she represents good class. So does Gaston, who impressed greatly in a couple of his runs early in his campaign earlier in the year before he appeared to go over the top. He looked stylish in a recent exhibition gallop on raceday and is forward to resume a new campaign. Look to Guessing (No3) and Santangelo (No7) to run big races while fresh.
And so to the big race. There is no getting away from seeing Wall Street (No2, R9) as the one to beat. His record in top races, and particularly when fresh, is outstanding. He has already won $1.64 million, but this could be his best season. Anchor all bets around him to run 1, 2 or 3. There is a body of thought that 4-year-olds will be vulnerable against the older weight-for-age horses at this early part of the season, but Jimmy Choux (No7), Lion Tamer (No8) and Scarlett Lady (No11) are so classy they have to be considered. It's always difficult to weigh up 3-year-old form against the likes of class performers such as Wall Street, but the above trio are exceptional.
The last is an impossible race, but as a group one-placed horse, Lady Kipling (No9) deserves consideration .
* In Race 1 at Tauranga, Universal Music (No1) cost himself dearly when slow away at Te Rapa last start. It put him out of contention, but it's worth remembering the time before he was the only one to make a race of it with Baldovino at Ruakaka. If he jumps cleanly from the middle of the pack this time he'll take beating.
In Race 9, Margarita Time (No13) was hampered soon after the start at Te Rapa last start and did well to finish third. She looks a good each-way chance with a 2kg claim again.
Racing: Wall Street one to beat in feature
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