Yourtheman beat Pasco by three-quarters of a length carrying 65.5kg in last year's Waikato Hurdles at Te Rapa.
Pasco has 2.5kg less than 12 months ago and faces Yourtheman tomorrow with 2kg less.
Weight differentials, even ones seemingly as minor as that, can be significant at the end of tough jumping races.
But there are other factors - Tommy Hazlett rode an absolutely word-perfect race on Yourtheman last year, something worth at least 1kg in such a race.
There are many factors to weigh up in what on paper looks to be one of the most confusing jumps' races in a long time.
You can make a case for half a dozen runners.
Yourtheman's trainer Mark Oulaghan also has Counter Punch engaged and says he's concerned that both horses might he one run away.
Last year, Yourtheman had two flat races leading into this race, this time he's had one, albeit a tougher one over 2800m.
"Both will definitely benefit with the run," he said yesterday.
At his last start last winter Counter Punch was narrowly beaten into third in a tough slog in the Grand National Hurdles at Riccarton so his staying ability is beyond question.
Oulaghan has had thoughts of taking Yourtheman to Melbourne soon to make his steeplechasing debut.
"But with what's going on over there things are up in the air - I'm not sure the trip will be possible."
The decision on the future of Victorian jumping will be announced on Monday afternoon, but the strong tip is it will be allowed to continue, if perhaps not in the same vein.
The TAB see the race as open as punters.
The betting agency has Pasco as $5.50 favourite ahead of Cape Kinaveral and Mr Charlton on $6, Yourtheman at $7 and Slumber at $10.
After Pasco was narrowly beaten in this race last year he was taken to Melbourne where he had a highly successful hurdling and steeplechasing campaign.
He has had four flat races to lead into this and will be one of tomorrow's fitter runners.
The 3200m has co-trainer Murray Baker concerned with his runner Slumber.
"He raced a bit ungenerously when he was the beaten favourite on this course last start and we've had a change with gear on him.
"I've got a query with the distance about him, but he's a very good jumper and that can compensate."
Racing: Hurdlers can repeat
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