KEY POINTS:
If you are live after the first leg of an intriguing PickSix at Ellerslie today take a bow. It should get a lot easier - on paper at least.
The difficult opening race in the $250,000 chase, the First Sovereign Trust Great Northern Hurdles, is a potential first-fence stumble for anyone with a limited bank.
The bookies had Grand National winner Counter Punch a firming $4.50 favourite yesterday, but after that you're getting juicy double figure odds for most of the field.
Go wide in the opening race and tighten the reins with Foxbridge Plate winner Baltaine in the next.
LEG ONE
Must haves: He may only have the single hurdle win to his name but Nufsed's last-start third in the Lumbercorp Hurdles on August 25 caught the eye more than any other Northern runner.
With a clear run at the last fence trainer Graeme Lord, a two-time winner of the race in the saddle, is convinced the horse would have won. The drier the track the more High Reason comes into favour. He will have improved lengths on his Lumbercorp sixth when badly in need of the run. He's up in weight and a novice on the course, but National winner Counter Punch is too smart to risk leaving off a multiple ticket. Slumber is worth another chance. After making a mess of the fence near the 1000m mark in the Lumbercorp he never looked a threat but is a lot better than that. He killed race rival Ravanelli at Pukekohe two starts back like the 4190m wouldn't trouble him.
Consider: Veteran Poacher is the insurance in one of the most open Northerns ever carded. He was third last year and you know the Lumbercorp runner-up won't stop when the pressure goes on again. Despite reservations over him getting the trip, Lumbercorp winner War Dancer also commands respect.
LEG TWO
With James McDonald's 4kg claim, Foxbridge Plate winner Baltaine is a weight special and close to the only anchor of the day. The durable seven-year-old was beaten a neck by El Perez in this race last year and is in career best nick. Buena Ventura was also in form on this card 12 months ago, winning a R92 event over 1200m. Should have freshened up nicely from a last-start 1400m win at the Riccarton National carnival. La Force is unbeaten fresh-up and the way he ran home for third in a recent Taupo trial over 1200m suggests he could keep that record in tact.
Consider: He failed miserably fresh-up at Hastings, but High Octane is much better than that. He won narrowly but impressively at the Taupo trials and is a two-time winner on the course.
LEG THREE
Must haves: Unlucky Grand National runner-up Stitched has everything going for him over the ultimate Ellerslie test and you know he won't be stopping when it counts. He's also a past winner over the hill and trainer Allan Sharrock is confident he has the Grosvenor gelding cherry ripe. Hypnotize looked beaten in the Pakuranga Hunt Cup but found the gears you need to win a Northern. Can put in the odd hairy leap but just gets more professional with each start.
Defending champ Real Tonic is probably at his limit in the handicap but he's just too classy to leave out. Trainer John Wheeler says he's in the same shape as he was before winning last year.
LEG FOUR
Must haves: Classy Ruakaka handicapper El Perez bounded back to his best form on the course two weeks back and will relish the step up to 2100m. He won't want it too dry out too much, but looks well placed to win his sixth Ellerslie race from just seven attempts. Cups contender Cape Kinaveral is the obvious threat. He's still at a nice position in the weights, handles all tracks and is a toff over the trip. It's hard to leave Empyreal off a multiple ticket on the score of class alone. His last-start third to The Veep over 1600m had the look of a stayer ready to strike.
LEG FIVE
Must haves: She may prefer it looser than she'll strike today, but Material Girl should be still too classy for these. She was just a nose and a head back in third place against open company here two weeks ago and carries big weights. With his 2kg claim from Shannon Doyle, visitor All In Trouble is the danger. There's a slight query over him right-handed but he's in career-best form. The Cosmob's 3kg claim also brings the front-runner into favour here and she could steal a winning break on the turn.
Consider: Conquistador is an under-rated stayer capable of upsetting if there's pace on from the jump and Riccarton winner Pleasure Cruiser also possesses a powerful finish. He'll relish the conditions.
LEG SIX
Must haves: In a wide open finale, CD visitor Sugar Train has the talent to spice up a Pick Six return. Forget he went round last time out when struggling in the ground. His fast-finishing second over 1400m at Hastings against similar company was a good pointer for this.
Bally Magic appears to have come back much stronger in this campaign and won't need to improve much on his last-start second at Tauranga to score here. Geni Royal is no champ but can race handy and should handle the ground. Three starts back she was rated good enough to tackle classy three-year-old company at New Plymouth. It may have only been a jumper's flat but there was also a lot to like about Classic Legacy's last-start second at Ellerslie over this trip.
Consider: He may be woefully out of form, but at his best Pace And Grace would win. In-form apprentice Cory Parish could make all the difference.
