KEY POINTS:
After I depressed you with the centre-right's likely Cabinet line-up under National it's only fair to let you know the centre-left's alternative.
The only certain players around a Clark-led Cabinet are at least three Greens and, of course, Jim Anderton. Winston Peters would have been a certainty if his party hadn't been found out taking secret donations from the big money men. If, by some miracle, he is able to convince one in 20 of us on election day and get back into Parliament he will rightly be crowned the Great New Zealand Houdini of politics. But you can count on it that neither Clark nor Key will have him in their Cabinet.
That leaves only one party which could genuinely work with either of the two major parties. Funnily enough, it's the Maori Party, although I will leave it out of this line-up as I did out of the National Party Cabinet to avoid complicating the scenarios. If it is in any position to form a coalition government, I'll assume it will get at least three of its senior MPs into Cabinet, with a fourth as a minister outside. That dynamic will make any new government a breath of fresh air.
If Clark is able to pull off a fourth term, she'll be hailed as a modern-day hero and will go down in Labour's history as its most successful leader with the exception of Michael Joseph Savage. She can leave Parliament any time she chooses as an undefeated prime minister and on her own terms.
Although Clark is cautious, her new Cabinet line-up will have a lot of new faces as she will have to make way for the Greens and several of her senior lieutenants will quietly retire. This will include Michael Cullen and Annette King. Jim Anderton should retire, but he'll keep going until they carry him out in a box, even though he insisted MPs retire at 65 when he was Labour Party president.
Here's my Clark-led Cabinet picks:
1. Helen Clark
Prime Minister.
2. Michael Cullen
Deputy PM and Minister of Finance. This will be a short-term appointment and Phil Goff will move into both roles. Of course if the Maori Party becomes part of the government, it might have a strong case to take the Deputy Prime Minister's job which would make an interesting mix. The Greens are probably too polite and non-hierarchical to insist on it.
3. Jeanette Fitzsimons
She will naturally get all of the important energy and environmental portfolios, but more interestingly, could end up as a major player in the finance portfolio.
4. Phil Goff
Foreign Affairs and Defence. He's been choking since he had to give up his portfolios for Peters and will relish being back at the centre of things. When Clark goes, Goff will make his move to the top job and should comfortably get it, unless David Cunliffe can somehow ankle-tap him.
5. Jim Anderton
Agriculture again. He's still there because Clark feels she owes him. He's generally a pair of safe hands and doesn't cause her any problems.
6. Parekura Horomia
He'll get a high-ranking role until the next shuffle when they will promote Shane Jones to this level.
7. David Cunliffe
Health. He's competent and will eventually lead the Labour Party, but will have to let Goff have a go first.
8. Trevor Mallard
Labour and Associate Finance. Clark will put him back on the front bench as he's one of her heavy hitters. There aren't many hoons in the party any more and they have at least one on the front bench.
9. Ruth Dyson
Employment. One of the major players and performers this term.
10. Chris Carter
Education. Liked by the teachers and, more importantly, by Clark.
11. Russel Norman/Sue Bradford
Given the Greens' insistence on co-leaders, Norman might expect to be put on the front bench. But given he's been around for only five minutes, there's a strong case for putting Sue Bradford here instead as Social Development Minister.
12. Pete Hodgson
Economic Development. A senior player but he'll be moved down to make way for the new faces.
13. Lianne Dalziel
Attorney-General or Justice. We don't hear much from her these days but she's studious and competent.
14. Maryan Street
Housing. The best, newest performer.
15. Shane Jones
Maori Affairs. He'll replace Nanaia Mahuta in this slot. One day he will be Prime Minister.
16. Sue Kedgley
She'll probably drive us all nuts but, like Bradford, she'll be a breath of fresh air.
You have to agree that although this Government has been around for nearly a decade, the Greens and the new blood give them more of a fresh look than National.
