Sir Roger Douglas has departed the political stage again but he may have left another enduring monument in Act's agreement with National this week. A law to cap increases in government spending could prove to be as effective as one of his great legacies of the 1980s, the Reserve Bank's inflation target.
Like the monetary target, the spending cap will sometimes be honoured in the breach but the target is no less effective for that. When it is breached, there needs to be a good reason, and a credible path set to bring inflation back into line. So it will be for the fiscal cap. National has agreed to legislation that will permit the Crown's core operating expenses to increase no faster than the rate of population growth multiplied by the inflation rate. In the event of a breach, the Minister of Finance will have to offer an explanation to Parliament and outline what will be done to rein in future increases.
The definition of core operating expenses will exclude finance charges, the unemployment benefit, asset impairments and spending on natural disasters. Those exemptions should give governments ample room to provide relief in recessions and emergencies. The purpose of the cap is clearly not to prevent governments running deficits in times like the present but to control spending in better times.
It is too easy, as the previous government proved, to take on ever larger commitments when business is booming, the workforce is fully employed and tax revenue is providing budget surpluses. The country hardly noticed that state spending was steadily becoming a greater proportion of the economy in the years that surpluses also enabled continuing reductions of public debt.
More generous medical subsidies, paid maternity leave, early education, interest-free student loans, higher public service pay rates, a "super goldcard" are not the kind of expenses that can be wound back when the business cycle turns down and revenue drops. They instantly become entitlements that a future government fears to threaten.