WeatherWatchNZ's Philip Duncan says conditions are ripe for New Zealand to receive its first wintry blast of the year next weekend. Video / WeatherWatchNZ
Weather watchers are predicting a warmer, wetter winter ahead for the Bay of Plenty.
In a Niwa climate outlook for June to August, above-average temperatures were expected throughout the region and the rest of New Zealand.
The forecast comes as Tauranga was crowned the sunniest main centre last month and autumn was listed as the second-equal warmest on record nationwide.
A predicted lack of southerly winds and warmer than average coastal seas would likely reduce the frequency and intensity of cold snaps this winter, the outlook stated.
However, a colder than average period was likely midway through this month.
Rainfall totals were likely to be above normal, with plumes of sub-tropical moisture causing heavy rainfall and increasing the chance for flooding at times.
Soil moisture levels and river flows were most likely to be above normal too.
Warmer than average coastal seas will contribute to the warmer weather, Niwa says. Photo / NZME
Of the six main centres in May, Tauranga was the sunniest, Auckland the warmest, Dunedin the driest, Christchurch the coolest, Hamilton the wettest and Wellington the least sunny.
The sunniest four locations in the country this year so far were Taranaki (1290 hours), Bay of Plenty (1203 hours), Greater Nelson (1194 hours) and Kāpiti Coast (1170 hours).
Niwa's climate summary for May 2022. Photo / Supplied
May rainfall was above normal or well above normal for inland portions of Bay of Plenty and Waikato, northern inland Canterbury and West Coast, Manawatū-Whanganui and much of Taranaki.
Temperatures were above average or well above average in every region of New Zealand last month.
It was the third-warmest May on record, with the average nationwide temperature being 12.6C - 1.8C warmer than the 1981-2010 May average.
Record or near-record mean air temperatures in May in the Bay of Plenty:
Tauranga • Mean air temp: 14.8C • Departure from normal:1.5C
Te Puke • Mean air temp: 13.7C • Departure from normal: 1.5C
Rotorua • Mean air temp: 12C • Departure from normal: 1.1C
Taupō • Mean air temp: 11.7C • Departure from normal: 2.3C
New Zealand's temperature winter outlook. Photo / Supplied
New Zealand's rainfall winter outlook. Photo / Supplied
May airflow patterns continued to be influenced by La Niña, with frequent northerly winds and air masses arriving from the subtropics.
As of this evening , there were no severe thunderstorms or weather warnings for the Bay of Plenty region.
The forecast tomorrow for the rural Bay of Plenty region was cloudy with showers west of Whakatāne in the morning that would spread east in the afternoon. Heavy showers are possible in the west and there will be a northeasterly wind.
On Wednesday rain is expected to spread east during the morning with northerlies also blowing.
Full winter probability breakdown:
Northland, Auckland, Waikato, Bay of Plenty June - August 2022
