If there is a certainty so far - and there have been very few - we are looking at a blue and red horse race with a jockey called Winston sitting smack in the middle.
The minor parties will make up the numbers and, for Maori, the crouch 'n hold approach before they engage their vote is quickly becoming the korero I am hearing on the kumara vine.
Just as Labour has been born again and making a two-horse race out of this election, their MOU mates Te Kakariki, the Green Party, are almost MIA, so unless they bring back Buck or a sweet smiling clever wahine, they will be, sadly, very silent.
For Maori, there is a lot more at stake than waiting for Winston, and here are a couple of scenarios worth considering.
As it stands, Maori have a voice at the table of decision-making in our current Government, albeit only two Maori Party members of Parliament, nonetheless, there have been considerable gains, the big kahuna being Whanau Ora.
What many have forgotten, or never knew, is the current Government did not have to take the Maori Party with them, they had the numbers to fly alone, but because of the mutual respect between John Key and Minister Flavell, they left two seats on the parliamentary plane for them.
This respect factor in any relationship is pivotal and it is this respect that could be lost in translation if Winston becomes the kingmaker.
We only have to look back to past relationships between himself and National.
Chaotic, controversial and divisive are words that come to mind and the kicker question is: what happens when Winnie retires? Does he have another race left in him or will he himself have "had enough"?
So what happens if Labour can only govern with Winston and or National can only govern with the Maori Party?
This is a very likely scenario for my two bobs' worth of watching and waiting to see what happens in 35 days' time.
Maori will have made their bed to lie in and it will come down to the kingmaker or the Kingitanga movement.
Then the next question to consider if this scenario evolves is: who would serve Maori best - Winston or Te Ururoa Flavell?
The taniwha in the whare with this scenario is Winston has pledged to get rid of the Maori seats.
So what then? What independent voice will Maori have?
The real lose-lose scenario is if Maori throw their tautoko (support) behind Labour at the expense of the Maori Party and Labour come up short. There goes all of the Maori seats and all the gains made over the last nine years disappear quicker than kina off a hakere (ungenerous) table.
Somehow, it feels more and more likely there will be a few more twists in the taniwha's tale so, for now, we crouch and hold and enjoy watching the fine folk of the Vale who will get to hear their Jacinderella princess kanohi ki te kanohi (face to face) today.
They will get to tell their story and she will give them hope they may not have had.
Hope is a precious commodity for us all. It adds warmth to the hangi of life and, for those who are disconnected from a good warm home and a puku of hot kai, then holding on to any strands of hope sewn into Labour's promises of a brighter better future is a win-win for all of us.
Crouch 'n hold whanau, let's hold on to our votes until it is time to engage.
broblack@xtra.co.nz
