Cyclone Hola is expected to hit Tauranga on Monday with experts saying it is likely to have a sharp impact, but not long-lasting.
Niwa principal scientist - forecasting Chris Brandolino said although it was unknown when and where precisely the cyclone would hit, the impact would be different based on where it struck.
"I think the best way to say it is it's becoming increasingly likely there will be some sort of impact for the upper North Island including the Bay of Plenty," Brandolino said.
"It's a tough one because it's still unclear as to what kind of impact it will [have]," he said.
He said it was still unclear what kind of impact Cyclone Hola could have on Tauranga and the Bay of Plenty but expected everything to be clearer tomorrow morning.
Brandolino said if the centre of the cyclone struck west of Tauranga, there would be more of a wind impact than rain but if it passed through the east, "then rain will be the bigger impact".
"If it passes too far east then there'll be some big waves."
By Sunday morning, Brandolino expected to know more but was confident in saying when it did strike; it would not stick around for long.
"It will be moving pretty swiftly ... any impacts will be not long lasting."
He said the risk of coastal erosion was low as today until Monday were referred to as "carefree" days when the tide was the lowest possible.
"Carefree days are going to produce the lowest risk."
Gav Bisman, Lee Ryan, Richie Goldstone and Aaron Wallis formed the Pony Club Surf Team. Photo/ George Novak
Surfer Gav Bisman said many surfers looked forward to the swell cyclones brought with them.
Bisman, who took part in the Resene Construction Designer and Builders Surfing Invitational surfing competition along with more than 80 local tradesmen at Papamoa Beach yesterday, said he had been tracking Cyclone Hola since Tuesday and said conditions for the competition were "idyllic".
He was part of the Pony Club Surf Team along with Lee Ryan, Richie Goldstone and Aaron Wallis and said he planned to continue to track the progress of the cyclone to see where the best spot in the country would be to go surfing.
"A lot of guys will be taking a long weekend to go and surf on Monday."
Matt Ellery, who organised the competition, said the event was about local guys coming together and celebrating the lifestyle of living by the ocean.
Architects, designers, builders and other tradies entered the competition in teams of four and six surfers who were in the water at one time.
