An aerial view of Welcome Bay. Photo / File
Welcome Bay's roads can't handle any more large-scale urban housing developments in the suburb.
That's a key finding of a three-year planning study into what Tauranga mayor Tenby Powell has called the city's "forgotten suburb".
The final Welcome Bay and Ōhauiti Planning Study 2020 was presented to the Tauranga City Council in a meeting yesterday, three years after work started in 2017.
City and infrastructure planning manager Andrew Mead told the meeting it was driven in part by the realisation that "in hindsight, this part of the city could have been planned better".
The last major planning was done in the 1990s.
Mead said the area was missing infrastructure and amenities, including education, employment and shopping options, that would now have to be "retrofitted in".
At the same time, the council was managing interest in rezoning rural land for housing developments to cope with a growing population and address a shortage of developable land.
About 16,500 people lived in the area in 2018, with about 6332 established dwellings.
The area had enough undeveloped urban land to add 1347 houses by 2063, taking the population up to 17,180.
The study looked at the feasibility of bumping that up to as many as 4740 dwellings through the rezoning of up to 230 hectares of rural land for housing.
It investigated what would be needed in terms of infrastructure such as roads, schools, and water pipes to cope with various growth scenarios, and what any upgrades needed could cost.
Ultimately, roading proved the dealbreaker in terms of opening the suburb up for extra growth.
Congestion is already an issue, especially on Welcome Bay Rd, which is the suburb's only route into the CBD and to access state highways.
The council looked at building new roads to move some of that traffic and relieve the additional congestion that new residents would bring.
The option considered to have the most potential to ease congestion was a new east-west route through the middle of the area, linking Welcome Bay to Greerton via Poike, connecting to State Highway 29A.
The council found, however, the road could cost up to $276 million and would likely run into big planning pitfalls, including cutting across parks and ecological areas - and it still would not completely fix the congestion issues.
Mead said paying for new roads, and other infrastructure upgrades, could drive development contributions - a fee the council required from developers usually passed on to home buyers - up from around $10,000 per house to $100,000 per new house.
But even without extra zoning, the developments already in the pipeline would put the network under more pressure. Mead said the council was looking at options to help offset that as part of a city-wide transport project.
The council voted unanimously to not to continue with structure planning for Welcome Bay because of the transport issues and costs, putting on ice future rezoning.
It would look at the suburbs again as part of a major review of the Tauranga City Plan coming up next year, and continue engaging with Māori trusts with land in the area.
The meeting heard it may be an option to bring in new Māori-purpose zoning to unlock land for some types of smaller or less intensive housing developments, such as papakainga or mixed rural/residential.
The council also voted, however, to press on with work to keep freeing up a partly-developed 66ha area of upper Ōhauiti for more urban growth.
The block, running south from the already-developed Adler Dr and straddling Ohauiti Rd, was less constrained by access than Welcome Bay, study author Steve Tuck said.
It did not rely on Welcome Bay Rd alone to access other areas of the city.
Earlier in the meeting, Des Heke spoke on behalf of a cluster of Māori trusts with neighbouring rural land holdings in the Kaitemako area of Welcome Bay, totalling about 113ha.
He said landowners felt they were "left behind again" in the council's engagement process for the study.
Heke said they had funding lined up to get independent advice on the feasibility of options to develop their land - currently a dairy run-off with a few homesteads - but had been waiting to see the council's research first. However, it was released too late.
He was concerned the decision not to continue with structure planning for Welcome Bay would limit their options to use the land.
Council staff told the meeting there had been multiple hui with land trusts throughout the study process, and there would still be opportunities to look at zoning options for Māori land through the City Plan review.
It kicked off a debate about Māori land and whether the council was doing enough to unlock it for development, or just putting it in the too-hard basket.
A supermarket
Study author Steve Tuck said there was enough demand for a supermarket and at least four suitable privately-owned site options.
But the ball was largely in the private sector's court to make the next move. If there was interest, the council would look at what it could do to help, such as rezoning.
A high school
Welcome Bay has three primary schools and no secondary school. The meeting heard the Ministry of Education had no plans to build a high school in Welcome Bay, with concerns including that it may draw students from other schools and make those schools less viable.
The council would continue to advocate for a high school.
The ministry was, however, looking at building a new primary school in Ōhauiti, as well as a new high school in Pyes Pa.
Western Bay of Plenty District could have fewer councillors to vote for next election.