COMMENT
Jacinda Ardern spent three days enthusiastically elbow-bumping her way around the Bay of Plenty this week, campaigning as leader of the Labour Party.
But will it make any difference at the polls?
Ardern took selfies with fans, wore hi-vis and looked at things, exercised her rare ability to communicate empathy in hard times, and finally announced some Labour policy.
A promise to make Matariki a public holiday, made in Rotorua on Monday, was the party's first policy release since campaigning halted when new Covid-19 community transmissions were detected, and its second policy overall of this election - the first came at its Auckland Town Hall campaign launch back in early August.
Rotorua was an interesting choice for launch 2.0.
You wouldn't exactly call the electorate a Labour stronghold.
The party has held it before, but it has been National Party seat for the past 12 years, with strong majorities for the party vote and MP Todd McClay, who seems to be hanging on to his party seniority through the revolving cast of leaders.
The city has one of New Zealand's most important tourism sectors - batting well above its weight in the spending it attracts - so the impact of Covid and border closures has been especially harsh.
The loss of international visitors hurt, but the removal of a good chunk of the domestic market during the Auckland lockdown was the icing on an unwanted cake, especially after the city's close shave with the second Covid wave borne, unwittingly, by a visiting Auckland family.
While the community response to the Government's multibillion-dollar efforts to soften the economic blow seems to be to have been good, people are worried about the future and a new holiday may be considered more of a burden than a salve by some.
The relaunch in Rotorua makes more sense when viewed through a Waiariki electorate lens.
In the last election, Labour made a clean sweep of the seven Māori electorates and effectively knocked the Māori Party out of Parliament.
The distinctly Māori flavour of Ardern's visit sent a message it was gunning for a repeat.
One of the biggest surprises of 2017 was Māori Party co-leader Te Ururoa Flavell's defeat at the hands of Labour political rookie Tamati Coffey.
Coffey successfully capitalised on Jacindamania then, and it looked this week like he was employing the same strategy, sticking close to the popular PM.
Then again, what Labour candidate would stray?
It's a seat that is tricky to predict, but with Māori Party candidate Rawiri Waititi striving to distance himself from his old life as a Labour candidate, and Hannah Tamaki's Vision Party splitting the votes of those looking for something else, in my view Coffey will keep it.
The Matariki announcement copped flak for not doing much for struggling businesses, but Ardern had an answer for that the following day with an SME package announcement in Tauranga.
It was practical but a bit boring - the extension of a loan scheme, digital training and regulatory action to make contactless payment more affordable for businesses.
Don't get me wrong, I prefer tapping my card as much as the next person and I don't particularly want to pay inflated prices for the privilege, it's just not policy that stirs the soul.
I'd peg it at about the same level as National's plan to make people display their insurance details on their car registrations.
After an enthusiastic welcome to the Historic Village, Ardern was asked if she thought the tide in the city was turning towards Labour.
I doubt it, and her less-than-effusive answers - she doesn't make assumptions - make me think she does too.
MP of 12 years Simon Bridges has had a bad year, no doubt, but he's hung in there and, at the end of the day, this is still Tauranga.
The city hasn't elected a Labour MP in 85 years. In the last election, National pulled about half the party vote to Labour's quarter - though it was Labour's best showing in Bridges' tenure.
In the neighbouring Bay of Plenty electorate, National has held the seat since Tony Ryall's win (then part of the East Cape electorate) in 1990. Before that, the last Labour MP died in World War II.
Todd Muller has held it for six years. Both he and Bridges lost some face in the brutal leadership battle, but I don't see their bases abandoning them yet.
Ardern's charm offensive took a sober turn on Wednesday in Whakatāne, nine months to the day since Whakaari erupted and took 21 lives, scarring dozens in body, hundreds more in mind.
It was her first return to the district since that dark time, and since the pandemic - as one health leader put it - "hijacked" the district's attempt to heal and recover.
The day's policy announcement - a new top tax rate of 39 per cent for people earning over $180,000 a year - was made 500km away by Finance Minister Grant Robertson.
Of all the Bay of Plenty region's electorates, the East Coast is the one to watch.
The retirement of its MP of 15 years, National's Anne Tolley - who turned the seat from red to blue in 2005 - leaves a vacuum.
Both major parties are fielding energised and experienced young women: Rotorua district councillor Tania Tapsell for National and East Coast-based Labour list MP Kiritapu Allen.
Tolley leaves a strong legacy and Tapsell is a formidable candidate with a bright future in the National Party, win or lose, but this year, I am tentatively laying my bet on Allen.
She polled pretty strongly in her first showing in 2017 compared to previous years, gaining 33.5 per cent of the vote to Tolley's 46.2 per cent.
With Labour's recent polling, and $300m pumped into its promise of transformational change in the region (though credit for much of that may better lie with New Zealand First) - I can make room for an upset.
Five weeks out from election day, here are my picks for the Bay of Plenty region:
Muller, McLay and Bridges will in my view keep their electorate seats for National.
But I also believe Labour will increase its share of the party vote in all electorates, keep the Waiariki seat and win the East Coast.
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