Muller predicts Clinton victory over Trump in US elections

Bay of Plenty MP Todd Muller (right) with Botany MP Jami-Lee Ross at the Republican National Convention held in Cleveland, Ohio. Photo/supplied

Bay of Plenty MP Todd Muller has been keeping a close eye on the American election and has been fascinated at the tight race between two historically unpopular candidates.

Mr Muller, who described himself as an "American politics tragic", has been an avid political watcher since the 1992 election when Bill Clinton was elected President.

He has been following this election closely and, at this point in the race, believes Hillary Clinton will win against Donald Trump when the final results are announced on Wednesday afternoon New Zealand time.

"It certainly appears to have become a bit tighter than perhaps what people were expecting two or three weeks ago. Clinton performed very solidly during the debates and Trump was abysmal. The way he debated and the quite aggressive way he portrayed himself turned off a lot of voters.

"It was a mean-spirited series of debates."

Revelations of Mr Trump's "appalling" behaviour in the past had also shocked a lot of voters, Mr Muller said.

But the FBI's signals that it was looking further into the Clinton email server issue had also affected polling.

"I think that's reminded people of some of the perceived character flaws, of the Hillary Clinton trustworthiness, and so the gap has narrowed."

Despite this, Mr Muller still believed Mrs Clinton would win, with roughly 300 to 320 electoral votes compared with 230 to 200 for Mr Trump.

"If he wins all of the swing states he can get there. But I don't think that will happen. I think she [Mrs Clinton] is likely to pick up some of those.

"It's so unpredictable. The polls suggest Hillary Clinton has this reasonably comfortably, but that assumes the voter turnout is reflected in the polls."

Mr Muller predicted interesting times ahead no matter which candidate ended up winning the election.

Mr Trump would be unpredictable and Mrs Clinton would face four years of "intense gridlock" if Republicans continued to hold the House.

"America, the great democratic experiment, has reduced themselves to these two choices.

"Independents are despairing."

Mr Muller said what "absolutely astounds" him about American politics was the passion on display.

"In New Zealand, most people have a light interest in politics that becomes a bit more front of mind at election time but it doesn't dominate their everyday lives.

"In America, politics is a major part of daily conversation and most people have passionate political views. They're not only passionate in support of their candidate and party, but passionate in their anger at the other candidate.

"It's a white-hot anger. Normal people are reduced to steaming vernacular."