Mitre 10 Cup: Mathematically, Bay of Plenty can make top four, says Hill

Bay of Plenty Steamers assistant coach David Hill looks on during the round five Mitre 10 Cup match between Taranaki and Bay of Plenty at Yarrow Stadium. Photo / Getty Images

It wasn't just the Bay of Plenty Steamers' two-point loss to Manawatu last week which made life difficult for them in their quest for a semifinal place in the Mitre 10 Cup Championship, it was a couple of other results as well.

Otago's upset 31-26 win over previously unbeaten Auckland at Eden Park and Northland's 24-20 win over another Premiership side, Counties Manukau, means the Steamers still hold fifth place in the tier-two Championship - but the gap to fourth is now wide.

Bay of Plenty are now 10 points, or two bonus-point wins, out of a place in the top four.

"Mathematically we can still do it," says assistant coach David Hill ahead of their match against Otago under the roof in Dunedin tonight.

"It's not a do-or-die situation, but it's pretty clear what we have to do," he says.

That is to win, score four tries and make sure the winning margin is seven points or more.

Then Bay of Plenty would take five competition points, Otago would get none and the gap on the points table would narrow to five.

But there's a couple of pointers which suggest a win of that magnitude might be difficult.

Bay of Plenty have not scored four tries in a match all season. They're the only team in the Mitre 10 Cup without a try-scoring bonus this year.

Also, this is what is called "storm week" for the Steamers, the week where they play two matches in five days, backing up less than a week after the loss to Manawatu.

In a season where top players have been regularly ruled out with injury, there is finally good news on the health front. Experienced and accomplished second five Terrence Hepetema is back in the No 12 jersey after missing last week.

There are a couple of changes close to the scrum too, with Te Puke Sports' Luke Campbell getting his second start of the season at halfback.

Mike Delany and Jason Robertson are now confirmed out for the season so Kaleb Trask moves from fullback into the No 10 jersey.

The only change in the starting forward pack is at loosehead prop where James Lay will start because of the season-ending injury to Solomona Sakalia.

The strong running midfielder Lalomilo Lalomilo is listed on the reserves bench. He was a star of the champion Bay of Plenty Under-19 team and with the injury enforced absences of Trael Joass, Lalakai Foketi and Matthew Garland, as well as Delany and Robertson, he may well make his Steamers debut tonight.

Bay of Plenty matches against Otago in the last couple of years have been high scoring, and often tense. Their last meeting was in the semifinals last year when the Steamers won 48-32 in Tauranga, after earlier winning 36-28 in Dunedin.

Otago are on a high after that rare win at Eden Park but they have a few injury issues too. Regular hooker and captain Sam Anderson-Heather is out, and his usual replacement as captain, the fullback Michael Collins is out as well. So the home team will be captained by winger Mitchell Scott, son of 1980 All Blacks halfback, the late Steve Scott.

The Steamers are on a five-match losing streak and have struggled to score tries and assert themselves over the opposition in recent weeks. Passes will have to stick and basic errors eliminated if they are to get another notch in the win column.

Because if they don't win well tonight, a semifinal place will be well nigh impossible.