In 200-plus years of US elections, the incumbent party has won 58 per cent of the time. When the sitting president is running, that increases to 69 per cent.
Biden should be in pole position, at least according to history, but he’s not and the clock is ticking.
His approval rating, which has slumped to a low of 38 per cent, is a major problem.
That’s well below the levels that typically point to re-election.
In the past 75 years, the only presidents who’ve fallen that low at the same point in their tenure are Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush, just before they were voted out in 1980 and 1992 respectively.
It’s surprising to see Biden languishing at a time when the US economy has been so strong.
The unemployment rate is just 4%, well below the long-term average of 5.7%.
It’s been at that level or less for 30 consecutive months now, a winning streak we haven’t seen since 1969.
However, for many Americans, this is overshadowed by the highest level of inflation in decades.
That isn’t necessarily Biden’s fault, but it happened on his watch and there’s a good chance it could lose him the election.
For investors, this could mean some portfolio fine-tuning is in order.
If Trump wins, he’ll want to reduce taxes.
We might also see changes at the Federal Reserve, with Trump likely to want someone more dovish than current chairman Jerome Powell (whose term ends in May 2026).
That could mean lower interest rates, while it also risks another wave of inflation.
Trump would take a more hard-line stance on immigration, and he’d be expected to ramp up pressure on China too (even though Biden has left many Trump-era tariffs in place).
Banks might benefit from less regulatory oversight, while the renewable energy industry could be a key loser.
Trump has suggested he will repeal all the Biden administration’s green energy mandates immediately if elected.
We’ll need to monitor all of these things as policy plans firm in the months ahead.
However, the impact of a victory for either candidate will be diluted if the winning party doesn’t win a majority in Congress.
There’s still a long way to go, but Trump looks very much the frontrunner at this point.
For now, sit back and enjoy the first debate in what is sure to be an intriguing election campaign.
Mark Lister is investment director at Craigs Investment Partners. The information in this article is provided for information only, is intended to be general in nature and does not take into account your financial situation, objectives, goals or risk tolerance. Before making any investment decision, Craigs Investment Partners recommends you contact an investment adviser.