Covid 19 Omicron outbreak: Expert warns 'rapid rise' in cases in coming months

A Bay of Plenty mayor has called for "vigilance and personal responsibility" after two cases in Tauranga were linked to the January Omicron cluster.

A Ministry of Health spokesperson said they were being treated as Omicron cases and whole-genome sequencing was under way to confirm the variant.

It comes as a public health expert anticipates a "rapid rise" in cases over the next month.

Meanwhile, the Bay of Plenty District Health Board says it has been preparing for this moment and has learnt from previous outbreaks.

The two Tauranga cases were among 10 new community cases of the Covid-19 variant, taking the total in the country to 29.

Both cases were in the same household and were isolated at home, the Ministry of Health said. There were a "limited" number of exposure events linked to the cases but investigations were still under way.

The two Tauranga cases were among 10 new Omicron community cases. Photo / Getty Images

Western Bay of Plenty District mayor Garry Webber called for people to get vaccinated and get their booster if they were able to.

"Vigilance and personal responsibility are going to have to be top of mind for everyone.

Western Bay of Plenty District mayor Garry Webber. Photo / NZME

"Really we have to do everything possible to make sure it is a low exposure event and try and keep it to where it is.

"Each individual needs to take responsibility for themselves, their family and our community."

Bay of Plenty DHB Covid-19 incident controller Trevor Richardson said it would do "everything we can as a healthcare system" to identify close contacts and attempt to contain any local outbreak, and asked the public to do their bit.

He said the health board had learnt from previous outbreaks and had been preparing for Omicron cases locally.

"If you're asked to isolate, please follow those isolation instructions, if you are due for your booster shot and you haven't had it, now is the time to get it or, if you haven't started your vaccine journey yet, to seriously think about that."

Bay of Plenty District Health Board Covid-19 Incident Controller Trevor Richardson. Photo / NZME

Richardson said Omicron would "undoubtedly" bring fresh challenges but the DHB had implemented hospital upgrades, had a well-connected health workforce and support framework and had the benefit of watching Omicron responses overseas and learning from this.

University of Waikato professor of public health Ross Lawrenson said there would be a "rapid rise" in cases over the next 30 days.

March and April would see "a lot of cases" before hopefully settling down again, he said.

University of Waikato professor of public health Ross Lawrenson. Photo / Supplied

"I think that's the general feeling around the country around our modelling that it's going to be a pretty steep rise.

"We are still, as a country, looking to contain these Omicron cases and I'm sure that that's what's happening in the Bay of Plenty at the moment - to try to slow down that spread and protect the health sector.

"But depending on how long they've been infectious for, it may well be that you'll see other cases popping up quite quickly."

The Terrace Cafe owner Lenka Mochnacka was stressed to hear the news of the two cases linked to the Omicron outbreak.

"I know how fast it can spread."

She felt working in a cafe setting meant there was a more likely chance of being impacted, especially if the number of cases grew.

Her worry with Omicron was that even though she was double vaccinated, there was still a chance of getting "really sick".

A consequence of that was closing the cafe, and not knowing how long for, she said.

Meanwhile, Ngāi Te Rangi chief executive Paora Stanley said: "Let's not panic."

"We have a strategy as a country and as a DHB to help suppress this and we've got to have confidence in where we're going and what we're doing."

Ngāi Te Rangi CEO Paora Stanley. Photo / NZME

Tauranga City Council commission chairwoman Anne Tolley stressed the importance of getting tested and self-isolating if experiencing symptoms, as well as the use of location tracking.

"The message for dealing with Omicron remains very much the same – get vaccinated and boosted as quickly as possible; follow the guidance about wearing masks and social distancing, and observe good hand hygiene.

"There's also some good advice about preparedness on the Ministry of Health website to help you deal with Omicron if you or someone in your household does get infected. That includes having a 'buddy system' in place so that help is available in the event that you are not able to go out for groceries or medical supplies."

She said if there was a significant outbreak in the Western Bay, "many of the systems we rely on will come under pressure".

"That means we will need to follow the rules, look after ourselves and our loved ones wherever possible and be kind to the essential workers who are going the extra mile for our community. We can and will get through this if we work together."

Tauranga City Council commission chairwoman Anne Tolley. Photo / NZME

Te Manu Toroa, a kaupapa Māori health provider, chief executive Pat Cook said its mobile vaccination team was putting on additional clinics for those aged 12 and older to help with boosters and vaccinations.

Five to 11-year-olds could get vaccinated at its Tauranga clinic.

But Cook was concerned about dealing with an outbreak among its staff and still being able to keep its doors open to serve the community.

"We've been working through those scenarios and are confident we will remain operational during an outbreak."

This included staggering staff rosters and completing additional training in order to be able to redeploy staff if the need arose.

"This enables us to keep focused on caring for Māori, including supporting both vaccinated and unvaccinated, as well as those that have complex health needs, and those who are hard to reach or require specialised community and welfare services."

Te Manu Toroa chief executive Pat Cook. Photo / Supplied

Te Manu Toroa was supporting people and their families who were isolated at home with Covid and would continue to do this in the event of an outbreak.

This included daily monitoring of health systems, escalating when required, and ensuring the household could still function during the isolation period.

On Saturdays, Te Manu Toroa's mobile vaccination team will be stationed outside its Tauranga Moana city clinic on Courtney Rd in Gate Pa giving first, second and booster doses for those aged 12 and over.

The city clinic also does Covid testing from Monday to Friday between 8.30am to 4.30pm.