A Covid modelling expert has issued a stark warning of more waves as new data shows 109 people have died after testing positive for Covid-19 in the Bay of Plenty health area, since the pandemic began.
According to recent Ministry of Health data, since the beginning of the pandemic there have been 70,553 cases of Covid-19 in Te Whatu Ora - Hauora a Toi Bay of Plenty area, equivalent to about 25 per cent of the population.
All but 122 of those were within the last eight months.
Meanwhile, the national hospitalisation rate has increased 28 per cent in the last week. One in every 20 people reporting to a hospital has Covid-19.
Nationally, there have been more than 1.5 million cases of Covid-19 recorded to date and 1784 Kiwis have died within 28 days of being reported as Covid-19 cases.
Covid-19 modeller Professor Michael Plank pleaded with the public to remember "the fundamentals": Test, report and isolate.
"It's important to think of other people," Plank said.
"Some people are going to die from this virus, others are going to be seriously ill.
"There will be more waves largely caused by new variants."
This week outgoing director-general of health Dr Ashley Bloomfield estimated half of all positive Covid-19 cases were going unreported, based on public surveillance testing including wastewater results.
"There is still a global pandemic," Bloomfield said.
"We're not out of the woods yet."
Bloomfield reported cases were increasing across all regions while the hospitalisation rate had gone up by 28 per cent in the last week.
Plank said hospitalisation numbers were already higher than they were at the peak of the first Omicron wave in March.
The Omicron variant arrived in New Zealand in December. The first wave of infections reached a national peak on February 25 with more than 24,000 new cases recorded on that day.
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In the Hauora a Toi Bay of Plenty area, which included the Tauranga and Whakatāne hospitals, new Covid-19 cases peaked at 1687 on March 7.
"The first wave was concentrated in people in their 20s and 30s. What we're seeing now is people aged 70 and older," Plank said.
According to Plank, the current case numbers for this older demographic were more than double what they had been in March.
If this trend continued, he expected to see hospitalisations rise accordingly.
In response to Bloomfield's estimate of unreported cases, Plank said: "No one really knows the number of infections being missed."
He said it was important for people to test and report their results as modellers used that information to understand immunity levels.
University of Otago professor of public health Michael Baker said the Covid-19 pandemic was "shining a light" on the complexity of ensuring the validity of health data.
"It is likely that reporting of Covid-19 deaths will continue to underestimate numbers," Baker said.
"Covid-19 infection can cause death from heart attacks and strokes and other causes that may not be attributed to this condition."
"Mortality reporting focuses on the underlying cause of death, so tends to default to any major chronic illnesses that a patient had, rather than acute infections that contributed to their death at that time."
Baker welcomed Bloomfield's announcement of a new reporting system which showed the virus was an underlying or contributing factor to somewhere between two-thirds and three-quarters of deaths after a Covid-19 infection.
"This change will therefore increase the confidence we have that deaths attributed to Covid-19 are valid.
"I am pleased to see that all of our Covid-19 mortality data will be revised to incorporate this change, including current and previously reported numbers."
Last week, Covid-19 Response Minister Ayesha Verrall announced the Government's rollout of additional health measures to help tackle the second Omicron wave and record levels of flu.
"There's no question the combination of a spike in Covid-19 cases and hospitalisations, the worst flu season in recent memory and corresponding staff absences are putting health workers and the whole health system under extreme pressure," Verrall said at the time.
"Our modelling suggests we're at the beginning of a second Omicron wave that could be bigger than the first, with the more transmissible BA.5 variant becoming the dominant strain in the community.
"There has been a significant increase in cases over the past two weeks, and worryingly the biggest jump is in cases among New Zealanders aged 65 and over. That, in turn, has led to an increase in hospital occupancy."
Plank said case numbers had slowed since Verrall's announcement but he couldn't say why.
"It's a bit early to say for sure and school holidays could be affecting case numbers.
"The slightly optimistic [interpretation] is that the peak will not be as big as it was in March."
How to protect against Covid-19
• Get vaccinated: Every aged 5 and above is eligible. While two doses provide some degree of protection against severe disease from the Omicron variant, boosters lower your chances of getting very sick and ending up in hospital.
• Stay home if you're sick: If you have symptoms stay home and get tested immediately.
• Wear a mask: This reduces the risk of spreading the virus.
• Improve ventilation: The risk of becoming infected with Covid-19 is highest in crowded and poorly ventilated indoor spaces.
• Physical distancing: You don't have to maintain a physical distance at the traffic light system, but it is worthwhile.
• Basic hygiene: This includes good hand hygiene, cough and sneeze etiquette, avoiding touching your face, and cleaning surfaces.
• Record your movements: Keep track of people you have been with, record any high-risk locations you have visited, and keep Bluetooth tracing turned on in the NZ Covid Tracer app.
• Be prepared: Prepare for what you need to do if you get Covid-19. Make sure you and your household have a plan and know what to do.
Source: Ministry of Health
Rotorua resident Mary Dallas, 82, said her long Covid symptoms had worsened after catching the virus for the second time on April 29. She was first infected in February.
"I have always eaten healthily, been a very fit person and exercised regularly.
"I used to be able to do 10 push-ups, five sit-ups and walk up and down the stairs 10 times every day, but since I caught Covid a second time, I have felt physically weak, fatigued and often get brain fog.
"I may be 82 but I used to feel as fit as a 40-year-old and three months ago I was up on my roof doing repairs and painting the house, now I don't get out of bed until lunchtime and struggled to do even two push-ups or walk up and down the stairs even once a day.
"My immune system has been really knocked around and my whole life is different in terms of my usual routines and what I am physically able to manage."
Dallas said she believed more needed to be done to find a cure for people with long Covid symptoms.
She said she was slowly getting better but feared what would happen if she caught Covid a third time.
Despite catching Covid twice, Dallas said she did not believe masking wearing or antiviral vaccinations should be mandated by the government, especially not for children and babies.
"When I go out I'm double-masked but it doesn't worry me if other people around me are demasked. If they want to take the risk of catching Covid that's their choice. I believe in freedom of speech and freedom of choice and government mandates take that choice away from us."
Dallas said she caught Covid twice despite being double-vaccinated and received one booster shot but would not get a second booster shot.
"I'll never allow anyone to put another needle in me unless it's a penicillin injection for some other condition."
Recent rule updates mean people who develop new Covid-19 symptoms 29 days or more since their last are considered reinfected and have to isolate again.
According to the Ministry of Health website, reinfection will become more likely as new variants spread among the community.
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