Construction of the Covid-19 ward at Tauranga hospital is under way. Photo / George Novak
Construction of the Covid-19 ward at Tauranga hospital is under way. Photo / George Novak
An estimated 230 people will die and there will be almost 31,000 Covid-19 cases in the Bay of Plenty District Health Board area next year if an 80 per cent vaccination rate is achieved.
But the number of deaths would nearly halve and case numbers would drop to 20,000 if the area hit its 90 per cent target, new pandemic modelling figures show.
The Bay of Plenty DHB data, released to the Bay of Plenty Times, showed cases, deaths and hospitalisation rates for 2022 - with both an 80 per cent and 90 per cent vaccinated population.
The modelling figures show with an 80 per cent vaccination rate in the Bay of Plenty DHB area there would be 2,200 hospitalisations, but at 90 per cent that would drop to 1,200.
Ministry of Health data shows as of November 7, 84 per cent of the DHB's eligible population had received one dose, and 72 per cent had received both.
Toi Te Ora Public Health medical officer of health Dr Jim Miller said achieving a 90 per cent vaccination rate for both doses "significantly reduces the estimated number of hospitalisations, ED attendances and deaths".
"The most important factor in estimating the burden of Covid-19 infection that we may experience in the community next year is the vaccination coverage in the eligible Bay of Plenty population."
Miller hoped the Bay would reach the 90 per cent target in December.
"I urge those that have not yet been vaccinated to do so - it's safe, free and it helps to protect your health, your whānau and your community."
Toi Te Ora Public Health medical officer of health Dr Jim Miller. Photo / NZME
The DHB's Covid-19 incident controller Trevor Richardson said plans were in place at the Tauranga and Whakatāne hospitals.
"Key actions" included recruiting more intensive care doctors and having the Emergency Operations Centre in place and on standby ready to respond.
Airflow in the hospitals was being worked on to minimise the risk of transmission.
Asked if hospitals would be able to cope based on this data, Richardson said Tauranga Hospital had six beds in the intensive care unit, and four in the high dependency unit.
Whakatāne Hospital had two beds available for intensive care [ICU] patients.
Richardson said the board had ICU capacity contingency plans for "mass casualty presentations" and a potential pandemic outbreak in the region.
This included increasing the number of ICU beds, using post-anaesthetic care unit beds and additional training of staff.
RNZ reported this week the DHB last year purchased and blessed two refrigerated containers — one for each hospital — to prepare for Covid-19 fatalities, as the hospitals did not have morgues.
Bay of Plenty District Health Board Covid-19 incident controller Trevor Richardson. Photo / George Novak
Poutiri Trust general manager Kirsty Maxwell-Crawford said demand for the vaccine had "dropped off" over the past two weeks.
Maxwell-Crawford said the trust was working to ensure vaccinations were "convenient" and "accessible" and that doctors and nurses were available to answer questions.
"Even though demand has waned, there's been a much greater increase in people asking for information."
Te Manu Toroa chief executive Pat Cook said it was "having to work much harder" to get people vaccinated.
"Most people who wanted to get vaccinated have already taken the opportunity to do so.
"Our focus remains on vaccinating rangatahi and the rest of our Māori community, particularly the suburbs with lower vaccination rates."
The Kaupapa Māori provider was also targeting the vaccine-hesitant, those under Government vaccination orders and following up those who had missed out on their second dose, Cook said.
University of Canterbury modeller Professor Michael Plank said it was important to get "uniformly high vaccine coverage" across all communities within the Bay of Plenty region.
"If there are particular communities with low vaccination rates they will be at significantly higher risk, and there will also more spillover of infections from unvaccinated to vaccinated people and to under-12s."
Plank said it was important to understand the figures were "indicative" rather than exact predictions.
"The actual numbers will depend very much on the Government response and how effective public health measures are at slowing the spread, as well as how evenly vaccines are distributed across communities."
He said data clearly showed hospitalisations and deaths from Covid-19 dropped significantly if 90 per cent of the population was vaccinated compared to 80 per cent.
Hospitalisations and deaths were still likely at 90 per cent, which reiterated the importance of getting the vaccination rate above that target, he said.
Commission chairwoman Anne Tolley. Photo / George Novak
Commission chairwoman Anne Tolley said the data was "sobering" because it meant between 130 and 230 Bay of Plenty families could be mourning a loved one who had died "unnecessarily".
"That's tremendously sad, because we have a safe, freely available and effective solution and I think it's time for unvaccinated, eligible people to think about their position.
"The evidence is clear – people who have been fully vaccinated are less likely to catch Covid-19 and they're much less likely to need hospitalisation or to die from this terrible virus."
Tolley urged anyone in Tauranga who had not been vaccinated to get the jab before it was "too late".
"New Zealand will be opening up and Covid will spread fast among vulnerable, unvaccinated populations, but the answer is in our hands.
"We have the power to hugely reduce the impact of this virus and accelerate our ability to get back to something like a normal lifestyle. Please use that power."
