Covid 19 coronavirus: Preventative virus action saw death rate fall in 2020

Actions to prevent the spread of the deadly Covid-19 virus in New Zealand resulted in a sharp decline in the number of people who died last year.

One of the country's leading Covid-19 experts Professor Michael Baker says the pandemic response saved about 8000 lives.

According to Statistics New Zealand, 1647 fewer people died in 2020 year than compared with 2019.

The number of deaths in Tauranga shrunk by more than 11 per cent between 2019 and 2020. Stats NZ recorded 1209 and 1068 deaths each year respectively.

Rotorua's death rate dropped from 612 to 564 and in Whakatāne from 375 to 312: percentage decreases of 8 and 16.8 respectively.

For Māori, the death rate in Tauranga dropped from 120 deaths to 114 between 2019 and 2020, and Rotorua had a drop from 201 to 180.

Baker, an epidemiologist with the University of Otago, said while the lockdowns were difficult for many, they saved lives.

Professor Michael Baker. Photo / Supplied

If New Zealand didn't lock down and there was circulation of the virus, Baker estimated there would have been around 6500 deaths nationwide.

Additionally, the country's all-cause mortality rate was down around 1500 Baker said.

"If you add those to the 6500, you're up to 8000 lives of people who lived this year who would have died if it wasn't for the Covid-19 response," he said.

Funeral Directors Association of New Zealand (FDANZ) chief executive David Moger said the downturn was "significant" and Covid-19 was responsible.

He said deaths were either natural process, illness or disease, or from normal activities of life such as accidents, crime and crashes.

"The lockdowns, particularly level 4 and level 3, curtailed activity quite considerably," Moger said.

"Because people were locked down, the normal activity of life wasn't happening and therefore the accidents weren't happening."

People were still dying of old age and the rate had remained stable, Moger said.

Funeral Directors Association of New Zealand chief executive David Moger. Photo / Supplied

The lockdowns and other pandemic responses such as Managed Isolation and Quarantine meant there had been no influenza season either.

"We'll probably be about 2000 deaths down across the country for the year. The key part of that has been [how] Covid-19 is being managed," he said.

"The activities that we use to limit the potential spread of Covid-19: social distancing, hand washing, face masks and so on, are equally as effective against the flu.

"Access to aged-care facilities were severely limited to protect the vulnerable residents within those facilities. When you put all that together, you can see why those numbers have been impacted."

Ron Wattam from Kiwi Coffin Club Charitable Trust. Photo / Stephen Parker

Baker said the damage of influenza could be lessened in the future if people used face masks more generally.

"We think the areas that are important are on public transport but also in doctors waiting rooms," he said.

"If people wear masks where they are forced to congregate that would push down the reproduction rate of influenza and could save lives."

Elsewhere, business for Rotorua's Kiwi Coffin Club Charitable Trust decreased between 10 and 15 per cent, trustee Ron Wattam said.

Wattam also believed Covid-19 was the key driver.

"Everyone stayed home, no one was killed on the roads, there were no winter flu or [other] ailments," he said.

Ministry of Transport data showed only 29 people died on Bay of Plenty roads last year, down from 40 in 2019.

The decline in road-user deaths reflected the nationwide trend where 320 people died in last year compared to 352 in 2019.

Tauranga death rates have slowed and birth rates continue to climb. Photo / George Novak

Tauranga bucks national birth rate trend

Concurrently, the number of babies born in Tauranga was the highest it had ever been, at 1758, with the data going all the way back to 1991.

There was a small increase of nine more babies born in Whakatāne between 2019 and 2020, however, in the Rotorua district the number shrunk by 78.

Nationwide, the total fertility rate (TFR) dropped last year from 1.72 in 2019 to 1.61 births per woman - the lowest on record.

TFR is the number of children who would be born per woman if they were to pass through childbearing years with the age-specific fertility rates remaining the same.

Massey University population expert Distinguished Professor Paul Spoonley said Tauranga was bucking the trend.

"Tauranga is one of the hot points in terms of growth - Queenstown has been knocked off its perch."

Massey University Distinguished Professor Paul Spoonley. Photo / Doug Sherring

The main factors were a younger age profile migrating to the city and a significant Māori population, which had children younger and had more overall, he said.

"It's that combination of a significant Māori population and the fact that Tauranga has tended to be a magnet for internal and international migrants," Spoonley said.

"Tauranga has the second-highest internal migration of any centre in New Zealand. That's the net-inward migration versus net-outward migration internally."

Spoonley said the city was in outlier as it had one of the highest proportions of old people in the country but it also had significant growth from younger generations.