Westpac economist Westpac industry economist Paul Clark agrees and says the effects will be severe and while Tauranga was likely to perform better than Rotorua due to its larger investment into tourism - as a whole we fared better than other regions.
Its quarterly confidence survey shows just 3 per cent of households in the Bay of Plenty expected economic conditions to improve over the coming year.
But it is not all bad news because the only region to rate higher was the Hawke's Bay.
Clark says our region is lucky because it has diverse industries to fall back on including agriculture, forestry - and kiwifruit, which is celebrating another record harvest.
It was also pleasing to see the latest data from One Roof and Valocity shows average house prices in the Bay of Plenty have increased by 1.5 per cent despite the financial impact of Covid. Rotorua climbed by 4.5 per cent and Tauranga more or less held its own with a slip of 0.3 per cent.
The property market is a major economic driver in both cities and while agents are reluctant to make any further 2020 predictions, One Roof editor Owen Vaughan believes the outlook remains bright.
I think now I will take a deep breath and have faith that I am fortunate to live in the Bay of Plenty which continues to punch above its weight when the chips are down.
Long may it last.