Big dry predicted for summer

Jeff Going, a share milker, talks about the drought being declared in the Bay of Plenty in March 2013. Photo / File

One of the strongest El Nino weather patterns since records began is heading our way - and history suggests this could mean a drought.

Niwa forecaster Chris Brandolino said El Nino would affect the spring weather and have a knock-on effect.

"It looks likely for the northern and eastern parts of the North Island, which includes the Bay of Plenty, we think the most likely outcome is for drier than normal."

Temperatures had an equal chance of being average or below average for spring and a warm, wet spring looked unlikely, he said.

The El Nino was expected to get stronger as the year progressed, he said.

He said it was likely this El Nino would be "up there" with the three strongest El Ninos recorded since records began in 1950.

These were in 1972-1973, 1982-1983 and 1997-1998, and caused much drier than normal conditions and even significant drought.

"Generally speaking, when looking at an El Nino as a whole, it can have big impacts or small impacts.

"There seems to be a different category when you get a super El Nino like the ones I described and like the one we might be coming into.

"Those three produced very dry conditions and, because of that, we think there is an elevated risk of drought."

Mr Brandolino said this could be good news for holidaymakers or vintners, but not so good for those in agriculture.

Looking back over August, the month was near average in all aspects except rainfall, which was above average.

The average temperature for Tauranga in August was 10.6C, with a high of 19C on August 30, and lows of 1C on August 11 and 13.

Sunshine hours were lower than usual for Tauranga, reaching 152 hours - 88 per cent of normal hours.

Rainfall was above normal, with 151mm falling throughout the month. The heaviest rainfall was on August 31.

On August 15, a freak twister caused damage on State Highway 2, north of Katikati.

Fire services responded to reports of damaged roofs and trees that were ripped from the ground.