Planning committee SmartGrowth is preparing to produce a pivotal report that will likely define the next step for future development in the Western Bay.
Since being established in 2004, SmartGrowth has outlined a land use plan catering for a population increase to 198,000 by 2021 and 286,000 by 2051.
The committee has backed new development areas such as Tauriko and Papamoa East, and Omokoroa, at the same time judging the Tauranga City urban boundary should not extend into rich horticulture/agriculture land - and parts of the existing area should be intensified.
Now, SmartGrowth has decided to review that long-term plan. The SmartGrowth Implementation Committee intended to complete a comparison of land/housing prices and development costs between Brisbane (southeast Queensland) and Western Bay.
But the implementation adviser Ken Tremaine announced at the committee meeting last week that it was broadening the report to include neighbouring areas such as Waikato and Auckland.
The report is likely to comment on whether any more development land should be made available in Tauranga, in the medium term.
Recent research by economist Rodney Dickens suggested that high-priced residential and industrial land in Tauranga was stifling the property market and population growth.
Land values have increased 181 per cent over the past 14 years, and lately SmartGrowth has come under scrutiny through claims that its plan is limiting land availability and pushing up prices.
Mr Tremaine says it's fine saying prices will fall if more land is zoned, but the real issue is servicing costs.
Services such as wastewater, drinking water, stormwater are a major contributor to land costs, and that's the problem.
"If there's too many sites opened for development, the time for putting in services is extended, as is the financial recovery through development contributions," he said.
"It's a challenging area. In the Western Bay we need to link land use with infrastructure provision and understand the timing for it.
"In some areas, existing services can be extended and in others new services are required. We have to efficiently plan infrastructure locations," Mr Tremaine said.
In Tauranga a higher level of investment to support urban development is required - such as the $100 million for the Southern Pipeline.
Mr Tremaine cited Templeton near Christchurch which was planning to house 30,000 people. For $4 million, they can hook into an efficient existing system.
"We need to do detailed work on comparing costs between major growth areas in New Zealand," he said.
Environment Bay of Plenty councillor Andrew von Dadelszen said it appeared industrial land prices were out of kilter compared with the Te Rapa Straight at Hamilton - though prices had fallen in the past year.
"We have to make sure we have a business friendly environment," he said.
Tauranga Deputy Mayor David Stewart questioned some of the prices paid for rural land earmarked for urban development.
He asked whether the big premiums paid for the land had created an artificial market.
Mr Tremaine said: "We are looking at land sales patterns, inside the urban limits and outside. There have been some good premiums paid in the good times.
"If you have no debt, the price has fallen 30 per cent, then you can sit and wait - and the scarcity of land will bring your value back.
"We only have one lever - zone more land and smash the cartel. But the moment you do that, you need to provide infrastructure services. That's the balancing act," he said.
The SmartGrowth committee was told that the owner of a kiwifruit orchard in Bethlehem was understood to be asking $21 million when it was valued at $11 million. He could sit there five to 10 years to get the best price.
The kiwifruit orchard is sitting in the middle of an area already designated for more intensive urban development.
Planners expand review targets
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