Who next for the firing line?

Steve Baron Photo/File

Who would ever want to be the Minister of Education?

The very first Minister of Education was the MP for Rangitikei/Wanganui, John Ballance, founder of the Wanganui Herald. He held the education portfolio under Premier Robert Stout for 18 months.

In those days an MP was simply and truly the representative for that electorate - they were not aligned to a political party because political parties did not exist. Well, at least not formally, but they were often grouped as loose factions when it came to voting on the issues of the day.

It wasn't until 1891 that the first political party, the Liberal Party, was formed under the leadership of Ballance and the party governed New Zealand until 1912.

We are now on to our 44th Minister of Education, Hekia Parata. Rumours around Parliament are that her job is now on the line ... hanging by a thread. No real surprises there, I guess, given the mortar fire she was come under recently.

Whether she lasts in this portfolio until the next election is difficult to know. Given we are less than six months out from an election you would expect Prime Minister John Key to keep things pretty much as they are, but pressure must surely be building. I almost get the feeling Parata will be pleased when this nightmare job is over - who wouldn't be.

It's certainly been a rollercoaster ride from go to woe for Parata. She stepped in at the deep end after taking over from Anne Tolley who had her back against the wall when introducing National Standards.

Some might even say it's been a baptism of fire for Parata because shortly after National Standards came the Novopay debacle and now the kohanga reo corruption allegations.

Parata has been in the role 27 months. That doesn't sound like a long time but you might be interested to know the shortest period served by an education minister was that of the 36th such minister, Geoffrey Palmer (under his own leadership) who held the portfolio for only six days before handing the hot potato over to Phil Goff.

Before that, William Montgomery held it for 12 days in 1884 when he graciously stepped aside to help keep Robert Stout in power.

In fact, the average time a Minister of Education holds this portfolio is just over 3 years (37 months). So, in that respect, if Parata were to soldier on to the next election this would mean 31 months in the role - something she could be reasonably proud of given education (at least under a National government) is a battlefield fraught with union landmines.

I would hazard a guess 90 per cent of education employees would be Labour/Green Party supporters who totally detest any National Party minister.

So who would take over from Parata if she loses the portfolio? Taupo MP and chief whip Louise Upston has told me in the past that education would be her preferred portfolio if ever elevated to minister.

Upston is a behind-the-scenes MP even though she is in the spotlight sitting behind John Key in Parliament. She is very determined and appears highly organised, not surprising given her pre-Parliament life in project management.

To my mind it would be a brave person to take over this portfolio given its historical difficulties, but I guess someone has to do the job and I think Upston would be up to the task.

Steve Baron is a Wanganui-based political scientist, co-editor of the book People Power and the founder of Better Democracy NZ.