Whanganui electorate could almost double in land size for 2026 election

Ohakune will become part of the Whanganui electorate if the proposal is adopted. Photo / Zaryd Wilson

The Whanganui electorate could almost double in land size before next year’s general election.

If a proposal by the Representation Commission is adopted, about 5100 people and 5200sq km from the Rangitīkei electorate will be added, with Whanganui covering most of the Ruapehu district, including Ohakune, Waiouru and Raetihi.

In a statement, commission chairman Judge Kevin Kelly said its electorate review was driven by population numbers and the need to ensure electorates had a similar number of people.

“The number of North Island general electorates must decrease by one.

“This is addressed in the lower North Island, where the populations of all current electorates are below the target quota.

“This change, coupled with some significant population changes elsewhere, has resulted in relatively substantial shifts in most electorate boundaries in the North Island, particularly in the lower North Island and the Auckland region.”

The commission proposes creating two new electorates (Kenepuru and Kāpiti) from three existing ones (Ōhāriu, Mana and Ōtaki).

Whanganui MP Carl Bates (National) said his electorate was currently about 5700sq km.

“[The proposed boundary] takes in the entire length of the Whanganui awa.

“That is really appropriate if you think about the mountain to sea and how we often connect ourselves with that in Whanganui.

“Obviously, we’d still retain that important connection to South Taranaki and Stratford.”

Bates was not concerned about covering a greater area on the campaign trail and, if successful, as MP.

“This will just add another dynamic and require a bit more driving, a bit more focus and a bit more efficiency.

“I’m up for making it happen.”

The Whanganui electorate could increase in land size by around 5200 sq km. Source: Representation Commision. Graphic / NZ Herald

He was unsure which parties and candidates those parts of Ruapehu had voted for previously.

According to the Electoral Commission, there were 895 party votes in Ohakune in the 2023 general election, 166 in Waiouru and 293 in Raetihi.

National was well ahead in Ohakune (361 to Labour’s 172).

Raetihi also swung to National (98 to Labour’s 67), but Waiouru voted 45-41 in favour of Labour.

The Act Party came third in Ohakune (128 votes) and Waiouru (37), with NZ First third in Raetihi (49).

Rangitīkei MP Suze Redmayne (National) won as a candidate in all three centres.

She could not be reached for comment on the proposals.

Massey University professor of politics Richard Shaw did not think Bates would “be sleeping uneasily” because of the proposal.

“It’s not like bits of Whanganui [city] have been carved off,” he said.

“I don’t think this will have much, if any, impact on the electorate vote whatsoever.”

People got “less excited about boundary changes these days”.

“They are not quite as consequential to the final outcome of the election as far as the formation of a government goes.

“The party vote treats the country as one big electorate.”

While losing parts of Ruapehu, the Rangitīkei electorate will move south and take in Levin if the proposal is adopted.

Taumarunui would move into the Taranaki-King Country electorate.

Bates said Whanganui and Ruapehu were already connected in several areas, including policing and health services.

“Then, of course, there are a number of businesses in Whanganui that have operations up in those areas as well, whether it be forestry, trades or some of our professional services.”

Whanganui MP Carl Bates (National) says he is not concerned about covering a greater area on the campaign trail.

Shaw said the interesting aspect of the boundary change was the amount of land that could be added.

“It’s starting to approach the size of the Māori electorates, which, traditionally, are the biggest ones.

“[Bates] is an up-and-coming person in the party and, if the Nats return to office, maybe he gets a junior ministerial role.

“That’s going to be a real issue for him - balancing the workload. It would be physically demanding to service that area with any degree of regularity.”

Whanganui Labour Party president Jude Lydia said the party would send one submission on the boundaries proposal rather than submissions from individual electorates.

Bates said National would do the same thing.

While Shaw did not expect the boundary change proposal to have much impact next year, the 2029 election could be different.

“There might be people in the far-flung corners of the electorate that say ‘Hell, I haven’t seen this bloke around much.’

“That might be when consequences become apparent.”

The public can make objections to the proposed boundaries until April 27, with counter-objections open from May 8 to 21.

Mike Tweed is a multimedia journalist at the Whanganui Chronicle. Since starting in March 2020, he has dabbled in everything from sport to music. His focus is local government, primarily the Whanganui District Council.