Stage set for tight poll battle

Anna Wallis PHOTO/FILE

So now we know: the battle for Te Tai Hauauru will be between Labour's Adrian Rurawhe and the Maori Party's Chris Mckenzie.

Encumbent Tariana Turia has been critical of reports that the party's days are numbered in the seat and she's got a point.

How can a University of Otago academic, quoted in one media piece as expecting a loss for the Maori Party, know what electors are thinking. But then how can a Chronicle editorial writer, either? But it's safe to say next year's election is going to be a tight race for the Maori Party.

The Maori Party have chosen a party strategist and there are precedents for that occupation making it into Parliament: quite a long list, in fact: Paul Goldsmith, Nikki Kaye, Paula Bennett, Steven Joyce, Grant Robertson, David Shearer, Kris Faafoi, Jacinda Ardern, Moana Mackey, Chris Hipkins, Meka Whaitiri, Russel Norman, Holly Walker, Julie Anne Genter, Jan Logie and Gareth Hughes being the most recent. The list of those who made it into Parliament as an electorate MP is shorter.

And Mr McKenzie has a whole lot more going for him than being a strategic manager for the Maori Party, who was Mrs Turia's former political adviser.

But his opponent Mr Rurawhe's path may well illustrate what's happening in the wider electorate. He's a former Maori Party supporter who left the party in 2008 when it supported National in government. He will be joined on the campaign trail by his sister Gaylene Nepia, a former Maori Party strategist.

How many other people can't stomach such an alliance, and the loss of the personal vote for the charismatic and indomitable Mrs Turia will be major factors in the election. It is unfortunate that long term planning for improvements to wellbeing that can take some time to bed in - such as the scale of whanau ora - don't get votes.

This election will demonstrate, in Whanganui at least, how long Mrs Turia's coat-tails are.