Russell Bell: It's beginning to feel a lot like 2020

Omicron could lead to businesses having to send entire workforces home for lengthy periods of isolation, Russell Bell writes. Photo / Bevan Conley

OPINION

Now that I have returned from holiday, I am somewhat refreshed and looking forward to new challenges and projects. So, Happy 2020!

Yes, you read that right because that is what it feels like right about now. Businesses and public entities getting ready to send their people home, hospitality and entertainment businesses seeking government and financial support and that sinking feeling that things are about to get tough.

That is the sentiment of many who I talk to in our local business sector as well as businesspeople who I caught up with over the holiday break.

One friend, who lost his business in 2020, recovered in 2021, is now facing hardship once again with the prospect of disrupted supply chain and projects being cancelled due to uncertainty. His sentiments are particularly telling – given that, as an Aucklander, he and many like him are probably more 'battle hardened' thanks to the numerous lockdowns they have endured.

But lockdowns are a thing of the past now that businesses can operate under the fluid rules of the traffic light system – well, aren't they?

Well, in my view, given that your household could potentially be forced to isolate for 24+ days (if one of your tribe contracts the variant named after the 15th letter of the Greek alphabet) the Government has shifted lockdown away from the nation to the home. And if the home is locked down, so are workers and also so too could be the staff of your customers and suppliers. The effect on the economy and local businesses could be catastrophic.

But, some will argue, "this is Covid, a serious disease". And you'd possibly agree if Omicron was as deadly and caused hospitalisation rates like the 13 variants before it (the 14th Greek letter has been curiously jumped, look it up). However, we are told, the vast majority of us will endure mild symptoms – especially if double or triple vaccinated.

So, why are we continuing to risk our economy, businesses, livelihoods, and supply of essentials to stamp out a virus which is considered mild and is now endemic around the world? It is a good question. But it is probably not the most important question – which is "how are we going to properly negotiate 2022 with Omicron out there"?

This is because the risks listed above are all outcome risks – they are an outcome of Covid, and the decisions made to manage it. And we haven't even started to talk about inflation which is another consequence of the times we are in.

For what it is worth, there needs to be a recognition that Omicron is both here and it won't be eradicated – no other country has managed it. The time for that thinking was December 2021 when the border intake should have been slowed and our focus should have been on making MIQ tighter rather than moving heaven and earth to get as many DJs as possible through it. Going even further back, quite why public money was channelled to roads, environmental projects, and fringe art projects when our hospitals and ICU status remained static is a mystery.

But here we are, and the best thing you can do, individually and as a business, is plan for what is coming and be prepared for some time off (especially if you have children at school). It's called (Business) Continuity Planning and is relatively straightforward.

But you need to do it now, not when we have the modeller's prediction of 50,000 cases a day (don't worry, like all past models it will be wrong, but that doesn't mean there won't be lots of infection and you will need to manage your resources wisely). For example, if you can, get masks and rapid antigen tests and try to divide your workforce into teams but have a policy for when you need to shut the doors and send people home, and how you will manage that time.

So, although it feels just like 2020, happy 2022! And I'm here to help if you want to get a continuity plan together.