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Home / Whanganui Chronicle / Opinion

Rob Rattenbury: What history teaches us about this year’s election

Whanganui Chronicle
19 Mar, 2023 04:00 PM4 mins to read

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Chris Hipkins is the latest in a long list of mid-term Prime Ministers leading their party into an election. Photo / Mark Mitchell

Chris Hipkins is the latest in a long list of mid-term Prime Ministers leading their party into an election. Photo / Mark Mitchell

Opinion

COMMENT:

I have not delved into politics for a while in this column. So I thought, seeing as we have a new Prime Minister and it is election year, I would give it a crack.

This column is not about our local political scene. That will come closer to the election.

Jacinda Ardern caught many of us napping when she resigned as Prime Minister in the New Year. I had expected her to resign, but not until about April.

Ardern’s eyes and body language last year told many of us the fun was over. The toughest gig in the country was becoming tiresome. Good on her.

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At the end of the day, it is just another job, and life is too short to be spent unhappily doing something that takes so much of one’s life up.

So we have Christopher Hipkins as the new Prime Minister. Hipkins was one of Ardern’s loyal lieutenants and her fixer for all that seems to not work well - police, health, education - in the hands of other ministers.

Do I like Hipkins? I do not know him, but he seems very relatable, probably the most relatable political leader we have at present. As Ardern was before she stepped down.

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Mind you, with this current Parliament, it would not be hard to stand out as a person most of us can, if not vote for, perhaps understand, and even like personally.

New Zealand’s political history in the last 90–odd years, back to the 1935 election when Michael Savage led Labour into its first-ever government, features a couple of interesting facts that I thought you may wish to know.

This is not about any particular party, but just political history.

Since 1935, only three people who have led their party to Government and become Prime Minister have seen their particular government’s tenure out to its end.

The first was Sir Walter Nash, Prime Minister in the one-term Labour government of 1957 to 1960, then Sir Robert Muldoon, Prime Minister of his three-term National government from 1975 to 1984, and lastly Helen Clark, Prime Minister of her three-term Labour government from 1999 to 2008.

Since 1935, only one Prime Minister who has stepped into the breach during a term of government due to death, resignation or naughty coup has been Prime Minister following the subsequent election: Peter Fraser, who became Prime Minister upon the death of incumbent and elected Prime Minister Michael Savage. He was Prime Minister of the first Labour government from March 1940 to December 1949, when Sid Holland’s first National government took power.

Since then, any Prime Minister stepping into the breach mid-term and taking over from their leader at the eleventh hour of a government facing problems holding office through an upcoming election has only taken their relevant party into opposition.

Sir Keith Holyoake took over from Sid Holland in 1957, only to lose the government to Labour. Sir John Marshall took over from Keith Holyoake for a few months before the 1972 election that saw Norm Kirk become Prime Minister. After Kirk died in office in August 1974, Sir Wallace Rowling, his deputy, took on the Prime Minister role, losing it to Sir Robert Muldoon in 1975.

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Poor old David Lange tossed the towel in as Prime Minister of his Labour government in August 1989 after battling Sir Roger Douglas over certain reforms. Sir Geoffrey Palmer took over but was then replaced by Mike Moore, who served only 56 days as Prime Minister before losing to National in 1990.

His successor as Prime Minister was Sir Jim Bolger, who managed to hold the reins of power until he went on an overseas trip in late 1997. While the cat was away, the mice played. He came back to find his caucus had dumped him in favour of Dame Jenny Shipley, our first female Prime Minister. Shipley led National into defeat in 1999.

Then we had Sir John Key, who’d had enough by December 2016, handing over to his old mate Sir Bill English, who somehow managed to turn victory to defeat at the soon-to-follow coalition talks with New Zealand First leader Winston Peters.

Now we have Ardern gone and replaced by Hipkins - perhaps a poisoned chalice for an ambitious and capable politician.

So, where to from here?

A third fact perhaps – MMP changes everything.

If Ardern had retained office until the election, I expected Labour to not be able to form a government after the election. Based on historic fact, I still expect that to happen, but one never knows with MMP.

Will Christopher Luxon take National to the polls? An interesting question for National nowadays. If so, will he be the new Prime Minister?

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