It will be business as usual in our democratic political system. I believe it is too soon to make any sure or even half-baked predictions about the result of the election. Suffice to say, the country will hum on along no matter who has the helm. We are just like that as a nation - we get on with things.
It is also too soon to be sure about our local parliamentary members, all good people trying to help their communities the best they can. I will save my local political predictions for a later time.
Last year, I wrote a column in early January with some predictions. I read this column again today, 12 months later, and was amazed that much of what I mentioned came to pass during the year. The war in Ukraine being the saddest call I made.
The greatest thing I got wrong was that Taiwan is still a free nation. Some could say that’s a work in progress, though.
I predicted Boris Johnson would go, hoisted by his own party, Judith Collins would go, again at the hands of her own party, and a Wellington MP would seek the Wellington mayoralty - Paul Eagle. Soon to be out of parliament.
The He Puapua discussion paper about various social changes has gone on holiday, as I predicted. Out to 2024.
Those are just a few things I either called or got completely wrong.
There is a lot happening in the world at the moment, much of it challenging. It is clear the war in Ukraine will rumble on.
I will predict that the Ukraine military will slowly and inexorably retake its land from Russian control from the northern spring on. Increased military aid from the West along with increasingly sophisticated weaponry is already seeing results. The Ukraine military is also receiving advanced military training from many Western nations, New Zealand included. They are a formidable force and highly motivated.
They are facing a conscript military that maybe does not have the motivation needed to overcome the resistance Ukraine is now offering.
I still believe that Putin will never use nuclear weapons in this war. He knows the outcome for Russia and the world if that happens. He will continue to rattle his sabre, threatening doom and gloom to all who dare support Ukraine. But his options are limited when the might of the West’s military and economy are involved.
On the home front, New Zealand will see further cost of living rises. Fuel, especially, will be more expensive for many from April. Mortgage interest rates will creep a little higher yet - hard on young homeowners just starting out, but good for savers, as this also means higher interest rates on term deposits.
Inflation will hopefully steady, and maybe come down. That is important for all of us.
Christopher Luxon will continue to develop in the coming months as the leader of the National Party. He is becoming more relatable of late, but still needs constant guidance, much from his deputy Nicola Willis.
David Seymour of Act is, by most measures, the opposition politician of 2022 in terms of visibility and cut-though in Parliament.
Jacinda Ardern and Grant Robertson remain relentlessly positive in the face of an increasingly effective Opposition. Labour has much work to do in the coming months to show the voting public that they are worthy of a third term. It’s been a rough five years for Labour which, in terms of policy development and social progress, has achieved less than hoped.
Covid pretty much put everything on hold for a couple of years. Labour has also made missteps with He Puapua, the attempt to entrench Three Waters legislation, getting caught in the process and increasing talk of New Zealand developing a unique democratic style without actually explaining what that really is and what it means to voters, or getting their buy-in.
Happy New Year to you all. May it be happy and prosperous. Roll on 2023.
