Presidential race a bumpy ride

CONSERVATIVE: US Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia, who was found dead on Saturday at his home in Texas.PHOTO/AP

IF THE gonzo journalist Hunter Thompson were still alive today he might apply his considerable talent to a Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail 2016.

He's no longer with us but, as the elements of what he called "American bizarro" are at play in this electoral season, I feel I'm channelling some of his spirit (albeit without the attendant drugs) to attempt some justice for the complexity of the US chase for the presidency made even more complex by the death of Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia, and the possibility of altering that court's five-to-four conservative majority.

For a bit of perspective consider this: The court's recent, unprecedented 5-4 decision to halt the carrying out of President Obama's emissions regulations could imperil the Paris Accord on global warming.

The divergence of the two major political parties is nowhere better viewed than through the lens of their "debates" which have been conducted along lines of the Dionysian and the Apollonian.

Republicans are over-the-top with a circular firing squad and a race to the bottom of vulgarity - their one area of agreement is their loathing of Obama.

So irresponsible are they as to declare they intend to deny the president his choice of a Supreme Court nominee, demonstrating willingness to create a constitutional crisis and hold the Supreme Court hostage. More cautious pundits see this surprise attack as less of a master stroke and more of sun stroke, predicting it will hand the election to the Democrats. But, then, this has been an unusually unlucky season for the predicting classes and party establishments.

For Republicans, Jeb Bush was the inevitable candidate. Donald Trump's entry was a joke, his supporters "about the same numbers who believe the Moon landings were a hoax". Now he's the front-runner and the same experts who predicted his early fade are speaking of a Trump presidency.

Hillary Clinton seemed the inevitable Democratic candidate, and last May when Senator Bernie Sanders entered the race her supporters turned Obama's campaign slogan on its head and declared: "No. He can't."

The media wrote him off as too liberal. He supports a single-payer health plan, free public universities and focuses on wealth inequality.

The Democratic establishment arranged that their debates would be few and never in prime time. Apollonian Democrats conducted debates with civility and substance - at least until the actual voting began.

In Iowa, where Clinton had had a lead of 50 points in July, she eked out a razor-thin majority of 0.2 per cent for a virtual tie. Contrary to predictions and the general failure of the press to cover Sanders, his supporters, especially young people, turned out in droves.

Then the fear set in for Clinton in the New Hampshire primary. In what may be a pivotal error, former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright said on Clinton's behalf: "There's a special place in hell for women who don't help women." Gloria Steinem, a feminist icon, claimed young women flocked to Sanders "because that's where the boys are".

Clinton's use or approval of gender politics was met with a backlash on the national blogosphere and the vote in New Hampshire where 60 per cent voted for Sanders and where Mrs Clinton lost the votes of women of all ages.

The next primaries are in Southern states. Pundits say Clinton has a lock there on African-American and Latino voters and Sanders is relatively unknown to minorities, but her support may not be as solid as predicted. An essay in The Nation by Michelle Alexander, an African-American civil rights lawyer, argues that Clinton doesn't deserve the black vote (http://www.thenation.com/article/hillary-clinton-does-not-deserve-black-peoples-votes/).

At this point all bets are off. To the consternation of the chattering classes afflicted with herd mentality and confirmation bias, the people - tired of being sliced and diced into voter profiles - may be making their own choices and letting a little democracy break out.

It's messy and it's wonderful at the same time.

-Jay Kuten is a US-trained forensic psychiatrist who emigrated to New Zealand for the fly fishing. He spent 40 years comforting the afflicted and intends to spend the rest afflicting the comfortable.