Peace recedes ever further

Justin Frewen Photo/File

During the 2003 US-led offensive to depose Saddam Hussein, I was based in Cyprus as part of a UN team monitoring the conflict and planning the organisation's return to Iraq. In the lead-up to the invasion, we were apprehensive about how it would affect the Iraqi people. However, contrary to expectations, the impact on the civilian population was far less than anticipated.

Few would have imagined that over 11 years down the road the situation in Iraq would if anything be worse than ever, let alone that the entire region would risk being engulfed in flames. The much trumpeted "success" of the 2003 invasion has proven to be nothing more than a fleeting chimera.

Despite a massive expenditure of resources, the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Iraqis and displacement of millions more, the fighting has become far more bitter and fanatical with the possibility of peace receding ever further.

With the overthrow of Saddam Hussein, a member of the minority Sunni community in Iraq, the Sunnis had found themselves playing a subordinate political role to the majority Shia.

The revolt of the Sunni majority in Syria in 2011, supported financially and militarily by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and Turkey, against the ruling minority Alawite Shia community rekindled the fires of Sunni rebellion in Iraq. Although the Assad regime in Syria stemmed the rebellion it was unable to defeat it decisively. The "zone of conflict" now threatens to devastate Iraq and Syria.

The major anti-governmental forces in both countries is an Islamic faction called Isis (Islamic State), which has declared its intention to establish an Islamic caliphate based on an extremist version of Sunni Islam. Despite becoming embroiled in a mini civil war with other Syrian rebel groups while also fighting against the Syrian army, Isis has managed to wrest control of around 35 per cent to 40 per cent of Syria.

Moreover, it intends to eliminate any opposition including, in particular, Shia Muslims. For Isis, the Shia are seen as apostates or heretics who deserve to be killed for having betrayed their faith. Isis has proved itself so extreme that its sectarianism has even been condemned by al-Qaida.

Estimated to have an army of some 60,000 Jihadists, Isis has its own funds including $2.3 billion in assets, which enables it recruit new members, purchase weapons and pursue its agenda of establishing a proto-Caliphate in Syria and Iraq. Its meteoric rise has become a source of anxiety to neighbouring countries, such as Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Turkey and Iran.

However, uniting those opposed to Isis, including external actors such as the US and local non-state parties such as the Kurds, has proven next to impossible given their divergent political objectives and mutual distrust. This can be seen in how Nato member Turkey has allowed Isis militants to traverse their border with relative impunity, often to receive medical treatment for their wounds, while preventing Turkish Kurds from crossing over to northern Syria to defend the Kurdish town of Kobane.

It is highly unlikely US-led air strikes against Isis will bring any sustainable long-term gains. Despite having 150,000 troops in Iraq in 2007 and a significant air force presence, the US could not completely defeat Al-Qaida or other Sunni resistance groups.

As Patrick Cockburn argues, the only way to eliminate Isis long-term is to try and de-escalate the crisis so the local parties do not all feel they are fighting for their lives. Isis thrives in conflict. So as long as the Syrian and Iraqi conflicts continue it will fight on.

Justin Frewen is a Wanganui-based United Nations consultant, who has served the UN on humanitarian missions for almost 20 years.