No need for Israel's nuclear lies

Gwynne Dyer

When Mordechai Vanunu, a humble Israeli technician who worked for years at Israel's secret nuclear site at Dimona, spilled the beans about Israel's nuclear weapons in 1986, very bad things happened to him. He was lured from safety in England for an Italian holiday by a woman who was an Israeli secret agent, drugged and kidnapped from Italy by other Israeli agents, and imprisoned for 18 years (11 of them in solitary confinement).

When Avraham Burg, the former speaker of the Israeli parliament, said last month that that Israel has both nuclear and chemical weapons (you know, like the nuclear weapons that Iran must not have and the chemical weapons that Syria must give up), nothing bad happened to him at all. He is protected by the Important Persons Act, the unwritten law that gets powerful and well-connected people off the hook in every country.

They didn't even go after Burg when he said that Israel's long-standing policy of "non-disclosure" (never confirm or deny that it has nukes) was "outdated and childish." But even 10 years after Vanunu finished serving his long jail sentence, he is not allowed to leave Israel, go near any foreign embassy, airport or border crossing, or speak to any journalist or foreigner.

The Israeli government's excuse for all this is that he may still know secrets he might reveal, but that is nonsense. Vanunu hasn't seen Dimona or talked to anybody in the Israeli nuclear weapons business for 30 years. What drives his tormentors is vindictiveness, and he may well go on being punished for his defiance until he dies - while Avraham Burg lives out his life undisturbed and offers occasional pearls of wisdom to the public.

So here are the "secrets" that Vanunu and Burg revealed, in rather more detail than Burg chose to give and in a more up-to-date form than Vanunu could give from personal knowledge.

Israel has a minimum of 80 and a maximum of 400 nuclear weapons, those limits being based on calculations of the amount of fissile material that it has enriched to weapons grade. The best guess is that the total is around two hundred warheads, most of them two-stage thermonuclear devices (hydrogen bombs).

At least some dozens are "tactical" weapons designed to be fired by 175mm and 203mm artillery pieces at ranges of 40-70km. The remainder are meant to be delivered by missiles or aircraft, and Israel maintains a full "triad" of delivery systems: land-based missiles, sea-launched missiles, and aircraft.

The missiles are mostly Jericho II medium-range ballistic missiles, which can reach all of Europe and most of western Asia. Since 2008, Jericho III intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) have also been entering service, with a range that would allow Israel to strike any inhabited point on the planet except some Pacific islands. Why such remarkably long ranges, when Israel's avowed enemies are all relatively close to hand? One speculation is that this is meant to encourage caution in other nuclear states that might at some future time be tempted to supply nuclear weapons to Israel's near enemies.

The maritime leg of the triad is highly accurate cruise missiles that are launched from underwater by Israel's German-built Dolphin-class submarines. These missiles constitute Israel's "secure second-strike" capability. And finally, there are American-made F-15 and F-16 strike aircraft.

Israel probably tested its bomb in the southern Indian Ocean in 1979 in cooperation with apartheid South Africa, which was also developing nuclear weapons (subsequently dismantled) at that time. The test was carried out under cover of a storm to escape satellite surveillance, but a rift in the cloud cover revealed the characteristic double flash of a nuclear explosion to an American satellite, Vela 6911.

This was a violation of the 1963 Limited Test Ban Treaty. But why does Israel still refuse to acknowledge that it has them? The only plausible answer is: to avoid embarrassing the United States in ways that would make it restrict its arms exports to Israel. But realistically, how likely is that to happen? The US Congress will ensure that Israel goes on getting all the money and arms it wants no matter what it says about its nukes, and it is high time to end this ridiculous dance around the truth.

Gwynne Dyer is an independent journalist whose articles are published in 45 countries.