Niwa does not directly forecast seasonal snowfall but Noll said that at this point the “ingredients” did not look exactly right for a “really, snowy season”.
The two key ingredients for getting snow during winter are having enough moisture and cold temperatures.
Due to more mild temperatures being expected this winter, there may be infrequent moisture.
“That may not necessarily bode well for a lot of snow.”
But the situation could change.
“In saying that, all it takes is one big dump of snow around school holidays and that can reverse the fortunes of an otherwise dim season for snow.”
Mild winter likely on its way
Southerly winds during May will bring “chilly, frosty weather” to the region over the next few weeks.
“May could end up being the most unusually cold month.”
But a change in the wind direction when winter begins in June could cause temperatures to turn around.
“As we go into winter, recalling that some of our last winters have been the warmest on record, it does look like we have a tendency to have quite mild winters.
“I would be surprised if this winter actually ended up being really cold this year.”
Slow relief for farmers with rain
In terms of rainfall, May looks to be quite a dry month for the lower North Island including Whanganui.
“There are quite a few soil moisture deficits and dryness still lingering around the region.”
For farmers and growers who are hoping for rain to alleviate the dryness of the past few months, it will be a slow process.
There could be a reduction in the number of rain days and more days with sunshine and dry conditions, Noll said.
Looking ahead to June and July, there should be more opportunities for rain.
Eva de Jong is a reporter for the Whanganui Chronicle covering health stories and general news. She began as a reporter in 2023.
