Mark Ward: Now's the time to build our future

Our declining population trend has reversed in a big way.

The release of Statistics New Zealand's first batch of Census 2018 data confirmed what most of us in Whanganui have suspected: our declining population trend has reversed in a big way.

Since the last count in 2013, our population has increased by 7.5 per cent. That's a gain of 3156 new residents, bringing our population to 45,309. While this is a fantastic reversal of a negative trend, it's important to remember that our population was 46,000 in 1997. We are not seeing unprecedented growth, but a return to a healthier base.

Mark Ward, chief executive of Whanganui and Partners.

If we look at house prices as a proxy for demand, Whanganui didn't see a reversal of the downward slope until 2016. Likely, the bulk of our growth occurred over recent years and is still accelerating. Given the national trends, it is obvious to me that we are still in a catch-up phase, but gaining ground quickly.

The years 2013-2018 will go down in Whanganui's history as the period during which we turned around from serious economic decline. It's a considerable accomplishment, but this is the beginning of our story, not the end. We must capture and maximise our current momentum to build a future we can be proud of.

Our population is back to where it was 20 years ago, which means there have been 20 years of missed opportunity and lost potential we now need to regain. Twenty years of limited appetite for investment here, and 20 years of reactionary thinking that needs to be shattered.

The effect of this is apparent in our supply of residential housing. We have not been building with growth in mind. While our population rose 7.5 per cent since 2013, the number of dwellings in Whanganui only went up 2.5 per cent. We have 3156 more people and only 480 more places to live.

The pressure of the housing shortage negatively affects our most vulnerable residents and acts as a handbrake on our economic growth. We need to build for the demand we'll face in the next 20 years rather than the last 20. As well as housing, this includes the social infrastructure necessary to support growing neighbourhoods.

We must make decisions that anticipate future growth or we will miss opportunities and waste our potential. We will see our upward trend plateau again. Thinking and acting only in response to our current situation is going to yield the same results.

Whanganui & Partners will lead by example, which is why we are changing the way we prioritise our activities. Whanganui & Partners issues an annual Statement of Intent that lays out our goals and actions for the coming year. Alongside our next statement will be our Economic Action Plan.

The plan will be developed with our partners and will be informed by the council's Economic Development Strategy. The plan will look forward and identify long-term opportunities for our new economy as well as what we actions must be taken to capitalise on them. It will aim to retain the unique character of our community and to ensure our economic growth is inclusive and sustainable.

We have seen significant positive change in our city over the past few years, bringing us to this point where we are undeniably on an upswing. Now is the time to consider what we can do to capitalise on that momentum and make Whanganui a vibrant, resilient and rewarding place to live, work and invest for the next generation. Our next chapter starts today.