Kanye West's claim at the time that "George Bush doesn't care about black people" may have been outrageous hyperbole but many who were not black sensed that a government which fails its most vulnerable cannot be relied upon to protect the interests even of the reasonably well-off.
In New Zealand, the signal event foreshadowing electoral decline may be the collapse of Key's political antennae. He appears increasingly tone deaf to the popular will - sometimes wilfully so. Which is how we define arrogance.
Case in point. The $3.4 million in compensation to the families of the 29 miners killed in the Pike River disaster. That amount - about $110,000 per family and the two survivors - was ordered as restitution by Judge Jane Farish who found the now bankrupt Pike River Coal company guilty of several counts of negligence.
The NZ Oil and Gas Company, Pike River's chief shareholder, has refused to pay. Mr Key's government, whose Labour minister Kate Wilkinson had to resign when the department was found negligent, has refused to pay on the ground that doing so "creates a precedent".
Judging from other recent actions of this government, the precedent to be set is one of decency and perhaps of common sense. And political sense - as it gave Labour's David Cunliffe the opportunity to promise to do the right thing if elected.
Key's refusal to pay comes at an inopportune time.
The Government had just reaped a hefty $375 million from selling off part of our national airline. Those proceeds are intended to make our books look good but, in the meantime, the miners' families compensation looks very small in contrast, making the Government look miserly this Christmas - just in time for Mr Key to appear a real-life Mr Scrooge.
If that were not enough, the Government announced its support of the wine-growers' industry to the tune of $8 million intended to foster the development of a wine lower in alcohol and in sugar content. In my time, that was called water. If they succeed, I'd happily suggest a name for it - Elite.
It's elitism that starts to rest albatross-like around Mr Key's neck after his stated intention to ignore the wishes of ordinary New Zealanders regarding the sale of the energy companies. There's no need for some outrageous local rapper to declare that Key doesn't care about ordinary New Zealanders - he's done it himself.
The failure to do the right big thing while conveying a smallness of spirit may be Mr Key's Katrina - oh, that and the Christchurch rebuild that isn't.
While I'm willing to consider the prophecy of Key's political defeat, it's not a prediction. Prediction should be based on science; prophecy is rooted in morality. While politics may partake of the former it seldom has much use for the latter.
Jay Kuten is an American-trained forensic psychiatrist who emigrated to New Zealand for the fly fishing. He spent 40 years comforting the afflicted and intends to spend the rest afflicting the comfortable.
