Gwynne Dyer: Short generation in Scotland

Gwynne Dyer

MAYBE they reach sexual maturity very young in Scotland. What else could explain the fact that they are going to have another referendum on Scottish independence only three years after the last one?

The Scottish referendum on independence in 2014 was supposed to be a once-in-a-generation event. The referendum in Scotland simply asked: "Should Scotland be an independent country?" � and the Scots said No by a 55 per cent to 45 per cent majority. But only 30 months later, the next generation of Scots must already have arrived.

Nicola Sturgeon, Alex Salmond's successor as leader of the Scottish National Party and First Minister of the Scottish government, announced on Monday that there will be a second referendum on Scottish independence in late 2018 or early 2019.

It's Sturgeon's job to promote the idea of independence, of course, but she needed a plausible pretext to demand a re-run of Scotland's own referendum. The English nationalists who committed the entire United Kingdom to leaving the European Union in last June's referendum gave her that pretext: 53 per cent of the English voted to leave, but 62 per cent of Scots voted to stay.

Why such a difference?

Scotland was never a great power, and it views the European Union as an economic and political safe haven. A large majority of Scots have no desire to leave the EU � especially if they are being dragged out of it by the gravely deluded English.

So Sturgeon can reasonably say that there has been a "material change of circumstances" since the first Scottish referendum, and claim that this change justifies another one.

However, her claim is seriously undermined by the fact that Scots are opposed to another referendum, even under current circumstances, by a three-to-two majority.

Moreover, there has been another "material change of circumstances" that hurts the case for Scottish independence. Low oil prices and the gradual depletion of the North Sea oil fields have drastically cut the Scottish government's tax take from North Sea oil revenue.

Then there is the fact that the European Union is made up of sovereign states, and that such states co-operate to discourage separatism in any of their members. Brussels has said an independent Scotland would not automatically retain EU membership.

This is the "Barroso doctrine" that if any part of an existing EU country becomes an independent state it has to apply for membership.

So an independent Scotland could find itself outside the EU single market because of Brexit, and outside the British single market as well because of its secession from the United Kingdom. Scotland exports four times as much to the rest of the United Kingdom as it does to the EU, so this could spell disaster.

The future looks distinctly unpromising for an independent Scotland. The Scots voted No to independence even when there was no Brexit in the offing. Why would they vote Yes now?

One reason would simply be anger at the Little Englanders who have presented them with this unpalatable choice.

But there is little enthusiasm in Scotland for independence on these terms. Most Scots just wish the whole question would go away.

� Gwynne Dyer is an independent journalist whose articles are published in 45 countries.