Whanganui voting place. Photo / Bevan Conley
Analysis
With one day to go until the election, eyes are beginning to turn towards two tight races expected in Whanganui and Te Tai Hauāuru.
Whanganui
Encompassing most of central and South Taranaki, as well as Whanganui, the electorate is more than what the name suggests.
In 2017, with National MP Chester Borrows retiring, the seat had its first battle without an incumbent since 1993.
National selected the first Māori female to run as a candidate in the electorate in lawyer Harete Hipango.
With previous Labour candidate Hamish McDouall now in the Whanganui mayor's seat, Labour selected Steph Lewis to try to take the seat back.
Hipango won the seat with a 1706 vote majority over Lewis.
This election, with Labour riding around 15 points higher than their 2017 election result, Lewis is hoping she can turn the tide.
"I've been encouraged by the response we have received," she said.
"It's been an incredible response. In saying that though, I'm not counting any chickens before they hatch."
Hipango, who now has had three years in the seat, said she was confident in her campaign and her work in the electorate but won't call the race yet.
"I never take things for granted," she said.
Hipango is now 21 on the National Party list and after only one term has the second highest list ranking of any first-term MP, having worked her way up to become shadow Attorney-General.
"Let's be clear here: fast riser, no - I've been there for three years on the backbench. From my point of view, I've worked hard, like many others," she said.
"Things are going great."
Brigitte Morten, a political commentator and former senior National staffer, is picking incumbency to push Hipango over the line.
"I think the majority is going to narrow, but I think Harete is going to hold it, mainly because of name recognition and the fact she's been out and about over the past few years," she said.
"[Steph Lewis] is actually relatively unknown particularly in the rural parts of the electorate, and when it comes to ticking the box it becomes a little bit harder if you don't know the people."
But Neale Jones, political commentator, PR consultant and former chief of staff to Labour leader Jacinda Ardern and Andrew Little said it could go the other way.
"I think what's interesting about Whanganui is that Labour has lost a lot of provincial seats over the past decade, and has always tried to win them back. Even in an MMP system it seems it doesn't matter that much to a party which electorate seats they win, but for Labour it's important they're seen as a nationwide party that speaks to provincial New Zealand," he said.
"The risk for Labour is that they are seen as an urban party."
Jones said that on paper, after Saturday the seat should belong to Lewis.
"It will be close, but last election Steph got the majority down to around 1700. The party vote swing since then has been significant, so the seat should swing to Labour."
As well as front runners Hipango and Lewis, also running in the seat are the Greens' Alan Clay, Social Credit's Heather Marion Smith, Advance NZ's Charlotte Weber, New Conservative's Jonathan Marshall and Independent Hillary Kieft.
Te Tai Hauāuru
There will also be huge interest in the Māori electorate of Te Tai Hauāuru tomorrow.
The electorate, established in 1996, spans from Otorohanga in the north to Porirua in the south, encompassing all of Taranaki, Whanganui and Rangitīkei.
Now held by Labour's Adrian Rurawhe, the seat has a colourful history, most notably held by Tariana Turia who defected from Labour to form the Māori Party in 2004. Before that the seat was held by Labour's Nanaia Mahuta and New Zealand First's Tuku Morgan.
Last election, the seat was the most marginal Māori seat in the country. Māori Party candidate Howie Tamati almost came within a thousand votes of Rurawhe, narrowly missing out on a seat in the hallowed chamber.
Led by Debbie Ngarewa-Packer and former Labour MP John Tamihere, the Māori Party now has fresh faces and has put up candidates across all seven Māori seats.
Running in Te Tai Hauāuru, Ngarewa-Packer will be Rurawhe's biggest challenge and has deployed the age-old "two for one" technique, urging voters to support her in the electorate. Her opponent is likely to get in on the list.
At the beginning of the campaign, Te Tai Hauāuru was seen as the key path to Parliament for the party.
Political commentator Shane te Pou, a former Labour campaign manager, said although he didn't pick her to win the seat, Ngarewa-Packer was strong.
"Debbie is a very strong forthright person. She's also an environmentalist, which in a way makes her polarising," he said.
"She's very well liked across the electorate, but I think her strongholds are more the South Taranaki and Whanganui areas.
"A win is possible, not probable."
Ngarewa-Packer is confident.
"I don't think placing labels on us wahine leaders is helpful. I don't see myself as polarising, I see myself as a whaea. As a whaea, I pick up the tea towel, I fight for papatuanuku, I fight against racism and I look after my whanau."
Ngarewa-Packer says her campaign has been strong, and the response she has received from whanau in her electorate has been overwhelming.
"The campaign has been absolutely phenomenal. But this is just the start."
"On Saturday we are going to celebrate what an awesome campaign this has been for our people."
On the other side of the fence, the Labour Party has the strongest hold of the Māori seats they have ever had. The party holds all seven, after taking the seat of Waiariki in 2017, booting the Māori Party out of Parliament in the process.
Adrian Rurawhe, dubbed a "quiet achiever" by te Pou, holds a 1039 vote majority. He's at 24 on the Labour list, meaning he is practically guaranteed a place in Parliament, regardless if he retains his seat or not.
Rurawhe says the campaign, spearheaded by his sister, is fundamental to retaining the seat.
"We run a very strong on-the-ground campaign. We have teams across the electorate working hard for the vote."
Following distantly behind Rurawhe and Ngarewa-Packer are the electorates' more minor candidates. Also trying their hand at the seat are Advance NZ's Noeline Apiata, the One Party's Korrallie Bailey-Taurua, the NZ Outdoors Party's Kiri McKee, and the New Conservative's Joshua Morgan.
When it comes to the candidates' chances, there's still doubt in the air. A recent Maori TV poll two weeks ago put Rurawhe ahead on 38 per cent, with Packer trailing on 20 per cent. Despite the lead, almost a third of voters were yet to make up their minds, something at the forefront of the minds of Rurawhe and Ngarewa-Packer.
With advance voting open, there's less and less candidates can do to woo voters as the days go by. Rurawhe and Labour will be fighting to keep ahold of their grip at the top, with Ngarewa-Packer and the Maori Party shaking the branch from below, hoping they fall.
Riders and spectators in Whanganui are anticipating the start of the last race.
