If I were a betting man, I might wager on the Environmental Protection Agency on Thursday granting the application by Trans-Tasman Resources to mine ironsand off the Patea coast.
The EPA is to announce its decision in Wellington on Thursday morning - or, at least, we understand that is the case. After delays, extensions, grace periods and re-thinks - and several earlier dates given for the announcement - one cannot be too sure.
The verdict was originally due in April; then mid-June, then July .... each time the EPA moved the goalposts, seeking more information and more deliberation for an application that was ruled "complete" in September 2016.
The sneaking feeling is that the EPA has been looking for an excuse - for enough "expert opinion" - to say "Yes" to a deal that covers 66 square kilometres of seabed and involves sucking up 50 million tonnes of ironsand a year for 35 years.
So my money is on the mining company getting the nod, though with stringent conditions.