During an epidemiology class, we medical students were asked a stark and simple question. Which was the more lethal, the machine guns and cannons of World War I, from 1914 to 1918 or the submicroscopic virus that caused the flu pandemic of 1918-1919? You probably guessed it. Forty-50 million people died of that flu, while 16 million died in the war.
We now know that the killer virus was an avian virus, an ancestor of the strains of avian and swine flu strains commonly found in modern flu outbreaks which still result in 30,000 deaths annually in the US.
In 2009 the WHO issued an alert that a global flu pandemic was highly imminent. The spread of infection by virtue of international air travel made it seem likely any such infection would spread more quickly than that in 1918. As a result of that alert and the respect for the virus' power I'd gained in medical school, I purchased a supply of Tamiflu (oseltamivir phosphate).
Tamiflu is an antiviral drug marketed by Roche Pharmaceuticals and approved by the US Food and Drug Administration on the basis that studies indicated the drug ameliorated symptoms of flu and prevented the complications, like pneumonia, which were the serious killers.
I wasn't the only buyer. Roche has been selling US$1-2 billion ($1.3-$2.5 billion) of the drug annually since 2007.