The 90% Project is an NZ Herald initiative that aims to reach all New Zealanders to get the word out about vaccination so we can save lives and restore freedoms. Video / NZ Herald
Experts believe vaccinating 90 per cent of eligible Kiwis by Christmas is possible, despite the steady decline in people getting their first dose.
However, they believe the Government needs to ramp up its targeting of essential workers and vulnerable populations, given the potentially poor uptake from the anti-vax and vaccine-hesitant communities.
This includes calls from epidemiologist professor Michael Baker to make vaccination mandatory under alert level 3 for workers travelling across the Auckland boundary and those with customer-facing roles.
The highest number of first doses administered was on August 26 - about a week after New Zealand went into lockdown - with 67,708 doses. A total of 25,439 people had their second doses that day.
A month later on September 25 - first dose administration has fallen by almost 40,000, to 19,350 jabs.
In contrast, the number of people getting their second dose hit 32,122 - its highest ever.
On Sunday, first dose levels dipped below 10,000 for the first time since August 18 (8182). However, fewer vaccinations on Sundays has been a consistent trend throughout the rollout.
As at Sunday, New Zealand was 548,360 first doses and 1.98 million second doses away from achieving the 90 per cent target.
Assuming a six-week gap between doses, an average of 11,670 first doses need to be administered per day from now until November 13 to allow the recommended time for people to get their second dose before Christmas.
On average, 22,270 people per day need to get their second doses from now until Christmas in order to hit 90 per cent.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has expressed her desire to see as many Auckland residents as possible vaccinated before Cabinet decides the city's alert level fate on Monday, saying she hoped 90 per cent of Aucklanders could get their first dose by that time.
Currently at 82 per cent, Auckland was still 112,300 first doses away from reaching this goal as at Sunday - meaning an average of 16,000 unvaccinated people would need to get their jab daily for the next week.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern. Photo / Mark Mitchell
Baker, of the University of Otago, said a drop-off in vaccinations from the levels witnessed in late August was expected.
While he considered the necessary average for daily first dose vaccinations to be achievable, Baker said it would require an "all of Government" focus.
"Increasingly, it's going to be an active process to remove every possible barrier to getting vaccinated," he said.
He believed the Government should implement a system whereby a person's vaccination status was discussed when someone presented to hospital or interacted with public officials - as a reminder for those yet to get the jab.
University of Otago epidemiologist professor Michael Baker. Photo / Supplied
Baker also proposed an extension of the vaccine mandate currently being discussed for health workers, to include essential staff - particularly those travelling across the Auckland boundary - and those with customer-facing roles under alert level 3.
"I think there's a good argument for a mandate for them and that's manageable without a portable vaccination certificate."
Currently, 77 per cent of eligible Kiwis have had their first dose, while 43 per cent are double-dosed.
Baker said getting from 80 to 90 per cent would be "much tougher", but he acknowledged New Zealand's active anti-vaxxer community was a "small minority".
Fellow University of Otago epidemiologist professor Nick Wilson said current levels of first dose administration were expected as Kiwis approached the 90 per cent target.
"As we move form the current 77 per cent to the high 80s, it's going to be a declining pattern, but there's still pretty high daily levels overall with that weekend effect being considered."
Otago University public health professor Nick Wilson. Photo / Supplied
Wilson said it would become more important who was being vaccinated, rather than how many.
"Hopefully [DHBs] will still do things like [vaccination] buses, going out to those communities to reduce the gap between the various ethnic groups and more deprived communities.
"In future outbreaks, if they occur, it will be those high-need communities who are most impacted."
Mobile vaccination units have been a big hit in Auckland. Photo / Sylvie Whinray
Ministry of Health Covid-19 vaccination operations acting manager Christine Nolan recognised the declining number of vaccinations but said the rollout was still going to plan.
"While this record spike in vaccinations has eased, it is pleasing to see that overall, the long term vaccination trend continues to be upwards.
"Our vaccination programme is delivering at scale and we are still on track to enable everyone in Aotearoa New Zealand to be vaccinated with two doses of the Pfizer vaccine by the end of this year."
Nolan said the Ministry was continuing to work with DHBs and other health providers to ensure the ease of access to vaccination centres for all communities.
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