Whanganui and Partners Chief Executive Mark Ward Photo / Bevan Conley
Whanganui is going to "feel the effects" of a global recession but is positioned to weather the storm better than many other regions, according to a senior economist.
Brad Olsen, a senior economist at Infometrics, presented a webinar organised by Whanganui & Partners on the outlook for the local economy.
"The Covid-19 pandemic is the worst economic hit we've seen since the Great Depression of the 1930s," Olsen said.
"The Global Financial Crisis really has nothing on it."
Olsen said all regions of the country would not be impacted equally, however, and that he predicted more resilience in regional centres like Whanganui.
"If we look at the Whanganui area more broadly, Whanganui doesn't have that same level of tourism exposure to start with, and local tourism is much more focused on domestic tourism, which has a better ability to bounce back faster.
"At the same time, the primary sector provides strength to the local area," he said.
The largest sector of the local workforce was in healthcare and social assistance, Olsen said, and he expected that to remain relatively stable.
• Covid19.govt.nz: The Government's official Covid-19 advisory website
Olsen said education and training provision was another strength for the Whanganui region.
"One of the areas Whanganui is very well-positioned for is the education and training element, and as we come through these relatively rapid economic shifts, we're going to see a lot more people out of work.
"There's going to be a real focus in turning to the need for more education to help people get back into employment over time.
"Don't get me wrong, it's going to be a tough ride for a number of businesses, but in my mind, Whanganui should be able to weather the storm better than other areas."
Whanganui & Partners' chief executive Mark Ward said the presentation identified a number of opportunities for the economic development agency.
"Infometrics' modelling shows 78 per cent of our workforce are able to operate under level 3 restrictions, compared to a national average of 74 per cent.
"This allows us to get more of our economy moving sooner than most other regions, and making the most of advantages like this will help Whanganui to stand out as a visitor, lifestyle and business destination once the public health crisis subsides."
Ward said to maximise this potential, Whanganui & Partners had focused its programmes on promoting economic recovery, including increasing delivery of its business support services.
"If any businesses are struggling at the moment, please get in touch," Ward said.
"Our team is here to help."
The full webinar is available to view on the news page of Whanganui & Partners' website.
“Relying on overseas doctors to fill our rural workforce gaps is not sustainable."