Danyl McLauchlan analyses the past week in politics in an online exclusive story.
Thursday
During Question Time, National’s deputy leader, Nicola Willis, had a well-publicised exchange with Labour’s Grant Robertson over the subject of the government’s alleged budget deficit (Willis: How big is his hole? Robertson: That’s not in the public interest.) Cue media virality. But it draws attention to something odd about this election: the deputy leaders of the major parties (de facto deputy in Robertson’s case) are more charismatic than the actual leaders, and they seem to care more about the values of their own parties than their leaders. Willis championed the density-housing accord that Luxon killed, and Robertson worked on the wealth tax vetoed by Chris Hipkins. It’s a strange state of affairs when the finance spokespeople are the starry-eyed dreamers.
Sunday
Sunday is policy day. The Sunday evening news shows often have the largest audience numbers of any broadcast media, so parties try to release policy earlier that day, attempting to earn a coveted slot before the first ads. And then – if they’re smart or lucky – that’ll continue on into the Monday morning media rounds that often set the political agenda for the week.
So, today the Greens promised taxpayer-funded dental care, funded by their wealth tax. Grandiose minor-party policies often struggle to connect with the public, but this one landed. A series of surveys have found that many people defer dental care because of the cost, with those on low incomes routinely waiting until their problems are so acute that they go to an emergency department for treatment. It’s an expensive policy, though: the Greens estimate it’ll cost $1.7 billion a year by the time it fully comes online. Part of the reason it’s expensive is because qualified dentists are scarce. The Greens plan to “train the next generation of dentists”, whatever that means, but often when the government subsidises something that’s expensive because of scarcity, the subsidy merely drives up the price.
But the Greens policy is cheap compared with Labour’s announcement. Grant Robertson appeared on TVNZ 1′s Q+A this morning to sombrely announce that times were tough and “It is not going to be possible to make big promises.” That afternoon Hipkins and Transport Minister David Parker promised to spend $35-45 billion on three new tunnels beneath the Waitematā Harbour. Political commentator Ben Thomas once noted that listening to politicians promise new Auckland harbour crossings is a lot like listening to young children talk about the adventures they go on with their imaginary friends. Three tunnels? Wow! $45 billion? Good for you, kids.
And Act promised to issue a “stop work notice” to public-sector executives on day one of a new government. If elected (and agreed to by National), Cabinet would issue instructions to government departments to immediately halt work on a large number of ongoing projects with the goal of saving a billion dollars. Leader David Seymour seems particularly exercised by the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment, which has nearly doubled its staff numbers over six years.
Monday
New Zealand has one of the worst trade deficits in the OECD: we buy more from the rest of the world than they buy from us (relative to the size of our economy). And that looks set to get worse. The deterioration of China’s economy is reducing demand for our milk powder. Fonterra has downgraded its milk price forecast for the 2023-24 season, and economists predict this will knock at least $5 billion off our GDP and significantly reduce the government’s tax take.
Treasury will reveal its pre-election economic and fiscal update on September 12. We’ve seen indications from the major parties that there will be no significant new taxes, but it looks as if there won’t be any money, either.
Tuesday
There were two clean energy announcements from the government this week. On Tuesday, the government announced it was fast-tracking nine new solar farms and three new wind farms through consenting.
On Wednesday, it revealed that global investment company BlackRock was creating a $2 billion “net zero” investment fund for its customers to build green energy infrastructure in New Zealand, with the goal of reaching 100% renewable energy, which is nice, but it won’t do that much for our gross greenhouse gas emissions.
The Climate Commission’s inventories indicate that energy generation makes up about 5% of current emissions. The big sources are agriculture – nearly half of gross emissions, and not yet covered by the Emissions Trading Scheme – and transport. Both those sectors are politically difficult, whereas building wind and solar farms is not, so 100% renewable energy has become a Beehive fixation. But, to be fair, gross emissions have dropped over the past two years.
Wednesday
National wants to ban cell phones in schools. This is a law I assumed was already in place, but apparently it’s up to individual schools. My daughter’s school bans smart devices and it seems to be a widespread practice, at least in Wellington. It’s official policy in Australia, recommended by Unesco and being taken up around the world. But the idea has encountered incredible resistance. The Prime Minister and Education Minister are opposed, as is the Secondary Principals’ Association, whose president choked up with emotion while being interviewed about it by Newshub, explaining that the real problem is vaping, which is “killing our babies”. Vapes have been banned from New Zealand schools since 2020.
There’s a new poll in town: the Guardian Essential report is based on an online panel, and it found what all the other recent polls have: if an election were held today, National and Act could form a government. But barely: they would have a one-seat majority. The poll also showed New Zealand First above the 5% threshold. Cost of living was the major issue for voters (followed by healthcare, crime and education). We were promised an election focused on “bread and butter”, but that hasn’t been the case. Yet. Instead, we’ve had a lot of crime and transport policy. Labour has indicated it will launch its tax policy this weekend – because Sunday is policy day – and this is expected to be some form of GST exemption. Cheaper fruit and vegetables will be their bread and butter.
