National Leader Christopher Luxon had no option but to admit his worst nightmare had come true. There was no hiding behind any spin, although he tried.
In just over a fortnight, the former airline boss is looking likely to be the prime minister of a three-party coalition he openly regards as his least desirable governing arrangement.
What a great start. What could go wrong from here?
Luxon had hoped to govern with just the Act Party. But add in Winston Peters and National knows from experience to expect the unexpected, which in government means a ticking time bomb.
Peters last worked with National in 1996. I was 22 years old and covering our first MMP election. Jonah was on the wing for the All Blacks and Sean Fitzpatrick was captain. Yes, it was a long time ago.
Despite Peters’ patchy record of never completing full terms with anyone while saying one thing and doing another, he is still regarded highly enough among the bewildered, the forgetful and the lonely that they see him as worth voting for.
It has thrown a spanner into the works for National.
Yet if nothing else, New Zealand First could be looked at as insurance in case Act’s David Seymour goes rogue, which is unlikely, but forced to work with arch nemesis Winston Peters, anything is possible.
So here is my prediction – it will work out okay. Why? Because it must.
Forced together for the sake of the country, and I’ve seen this many times before, it will work because the other option is we go back to the polls. No one wins then.
Watch Luxon manage these two parties well, with respect and decent communication. That’s all you can ask for.
If Peters chooses to rewrite deals and storm off, no one will be surprised.
Luxon is a businessman and a deal broker. Peters demands loyalty. They should be able to meet in the middle. Same with Seymour – if he cocks this up with Winston, surely both men will be sent on their way.
But the Peters I see right now appears to have become more constructive in the past few days and Seymour seems to be calming down – he needs to check himself more often, just check his brain is always connected to his mouth before opening it.
I sense Peters is happy to just be in the mix at this stage but come election night watch the language to see what hints he gives about being part of a formal government.
Let the numbers guide you. At this point, Act and National combined have about 60 seats when you average out the polls – they will need 61 minimum to govern.
There is a fight within a fight here. 61 seats and National and Act do it the uncomplicated way. 60 seats and they must go cap in hand to Winston Peters.
Peters was a firebrand in 1996, the last time he worked with National. But that was 27 years ago. Back then he had enormous capacity to work, play, fight and win. I know because I was trying to keep up.
He is much older now but his memory is sharp and in many ways he is writing his legacy – many don’t get the chance so why would Peters want to go out on a bum note?
WHY RULE HIM IN?
The confirmation that National would indeed work with Peters if need be was the right announcement at the right time because in the same week the polls opened for Kiwis overseas to vote.
Those engaged in the politics of home would have heard Luxon’s news and it might sway some. The timing was vintage, well, sort of.
The plan all year was no Peters. Keep him out until they can’t ignore him any longer.
By delaying it, and now ruling him in, it’s likely he will get across the line.
Had Luxon ruled Peters out earlier, it may have finished him.
LUXON’S FAIL
For Luxon the announcement was evidence he has failed to capture Kiwis’ hearts, minds and ambitions in the way John Key did when he swept to power in 2008.
I’m not sure what the Nats expected?
Luxon has a story but we don’t know it. And it hasn’t been told well by anyone.
He is a first term MP and many voters barely know he exists. He has had very little time just to press the flesh in a slow way and get to know towns, regions and people around the country.
There’s also the lingering trust issue – what does he really want to achieve in office?
He is also a church-going non drinker, who had public views on abortion that many women turned their noses up at.
Do Kiwis have trust issues with non-drinking Christians? Some will. What’s your vice, how do you let your hair down? In Luxon’s case the answer is impossible really.
And what is National really offering? Not much. But it doesn’t have to. It is not getting elected. The reality is, Labour is getting booted out.
THE NATS’ PLAN
The manifesto so far harks back to what National has always done – it’s as inspiring as an Eddie Jones team talk. National has its go-to policies. It has wheeled them all out this time.
Tax cuts, tough on beneficiaries, overturn some Labour Party tax measures, let landlords claim depreciation, smaller government, fewer consultants, more highways, ditch ute tax, ban phones in schools, have reading, writing and maths as a priority. Boot camps and tough on crime – it all reads like a slogan. Some of it is policy, some of it is meaningless.
They will continue to hire spin doctors and communications staff. And let’s not forget about the consultants.
TOO ROOKIE?
I do not believe Luxon’s relative inexperience in politics will be much of a problem for him. He will adapt and look the part pretty quickly. He may well be one of those people better suited to government than opposition.
Staff and resources for the prime minister are unlimited – what he wants, he will get.
It is a far cry from the other side which is half the reason why being in opposition is so hard.
WHO IS NATIONAL?
Good question. They are young, untried, untested and inexperienced. Any past political power players have moved on.
Luxon, Nicola Willis, Chris Bishop, Simeon Brown, Shane Reti, and Erica Stanford have barely served a parliamentary apprenticeship and they will be the top cabinet ministers.
None of them have been there before.
Louise Upston and Paul Goldsmith have. They never set the world on fire. The other senior MP is Judith Collins, remember her? Not going anywhere and staying around to achieve what?
Gerry Brownlee will be Speaker.
There is no John Key, Bill English, Steven Joyce or Christopher Finlayson – heavyweights who knew what to do.
ARE THEY READY?
They are going to have to be. Come Monday we can all vote – the polls open.
I expect a government to form within two or three weeks of the election on October 14.
I covered the Peters saga during the 1996 election, and sat around for nine weeks as he danced with both Labour and National, delivering the most prescriptive coalition document ever seen in New Zealand.
It was the first one – no one knew any other way. But it was too big. Too much could go wrong, and it did.
The next one will be simple. Less is more. More is trouble.
National looks set to inherit a country seriously lacking in confidence and in crisis on so many levels. And facing fresh talk of slipping back into recession.
Is a young, inexperienced and untested National government even up to the task, and does it have the ideas? I think most of us are yet to be convinced.
But Labour lost us some time back. They are tired and it shows. I doubt they will be missed.
